WEBVTT 00:00:34.000 --> 00:00:47.000 I'm gonna start the recording I wonder if I can make it not make a sound when participants join? because that's going to be distracting. 00:00:47.000 --> 00:01:02.000 Yeah, Okay. got rid of that. Thank you. So welcome everyone, and thank you for joining us to hear some State experts share their insight about Russians violent invasion of Ukraine. 00:01:02.000 --> 00:01:08.000 So I am Vanessa Vigier i'm a professor in the politics, policy, and International Relations Department. 00:01:08.000 --> 00:01:13.000 Here at Selen State University, and I will serve as a moderator for this panel. 00:01:13.000 --> 00:01:25.000 Much of my own work has focused on the former Soviet Union as my ongoing scholarship examines labor migration to Russia, and I've also taught political science at the American University of Central Asia and 00:01:25.000 --> 00:01:33.000 the U.S.A. Academy in kyrgyzstan 287, and I've been learning Russian language for many years. so I very much look forward to hearing my colleagues. 00:01:33.000 --> 00:01:40.000 Analysis of this terrifying war. And why is that? What is that stick for Ukraine, Russia, and beyond? 00:01:40.000 --> 00:01:46.000 So this event is being recorded, you should feel free to post your questions in the chat. 00:01:46.000 --> 00:01:58.000 There will also be time at the end live questions and i'm going to introduce. now our 4 speakers, and i'm delighted that they're able to join us today to share their perspectives. 00:01:58.000 --> 00:02:05.000 Our first speaker will be elizabeth kaufman. she's associate professor in a politics policy and International Relations Department. 00:02:05.000 --> 00:02:13.000 She teaches courses in European politics, nationalism, ethnic identity, and genocide. 00:02:13.000 --> 00:02:22.000 She has conducted research on the Polish military and Nato expansion, and she guest lecture at the Naval War College on Poland's place in Nato. 00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:28.000 Our second speaker will be Adishonsky She's Professor of History and the coordinator of Latin. 00:02:28.000 --> 00:02:39.000 American studies for work in us Latin American relations focuses on immigration policies, counterinsurgencies, usaid and hard and soft interventions. 00:02:39.000 --> 00:02:47.000 Our third speaker is Chris Moorello, professor in the History department and Director of the Center for holocaust and Genocide Studies. 00:02:47.000 --> 00:02:53.000 He also Coordinates the university's graduate certificate in holocaust and genocide studies. 00:02:53.000 --> 00:02:59.000 And then, last, but not least, Kenish cancer testimony is professor in the department of politics, policy, and international relations. 00:02:59.000 --> 00:03:14.000 He specializes in international security The international political economy. and foreign policy analysis, and he's also Director of the University's Base center for public and global affairs. So, Elizabeth. 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:17.000 Please take it away. Thank you so much again for being here. 00:03:17.000 --> 00:03:27.000 Thank you, Vanessa. So I because I teach Nationalism. One of the things I like to talk about is how borders have moved. 00:03:27.000 --> 00:03:33.000 And so I have a map here of as you see it's a map of Europe. 00:03:33.000 --> 00:03:42.000 This is actually 1,400 and the i'm trying to my share thing is pushed over top of where I need to move my map. 00:03:42.000 --> 00:03:51.000 That's not a good thing there, we go sorry about that It's a map of Europe with the outline of Ukraine superimposed over it as you see in 1,400 there was no 00:03:51.000 --> 00:04:00.000 Ukraine. The first time that Ukraine really shows up on the map is in 1,649. 00:04:00.000 --> 00:04:07.000 So the territory that's occupied by Ukraine was Poland, Lithuania, primarily in 1,649. 00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:21.000 We have a area designated as having been ruled by the Ukrainian Cossacks, and 1,649 is an important date for Ukrainians in terms of their national narrative of their 00:04:21.000 --> 00:04:32.000 existence, and the map continues to move so again. There's no Ukraine, as we hit 1,800. 00:04:32.000 --> 00:04:46.000 There's also no Poland I tell my students sometimes that if you look at the city of Lavoo of Lavif, which is in Eastern Ukraine. that somewhat what Western Ukraine excuse me that someone born 00:04:46.000 --> 00:04:57.000 in Levi in 1,900 would have been a citizen of the Austro-hungarian empire, and that same person would have then lived in Poland. 00:04:57.000 --> 00:05:04.000 Ukraine, or in Poland, in Soviet, Ukraine, and now an independent Ukraine, without ever having moved. 00:05:04.000 --> 00:05:15.000 So someone who lived from 1,900 to 1,995 would have lived under 4 different linguistic administrations, would have survived the Russian invasion, or the Soviet invasion of Poland and then the German 00:05:15.000 --> 00:05:21.000 counter-invasion, and would have lived in an area of significant strife. 00:05:21.000 --> 00:05:28.000 And all of that. through all of that you definitely have a Ukrainian identity. 00:05:28.000 --> 00:05:39.000 You have a group of people who consider themselves not Russians, not Polls, but Ukrainians, and that's a really important part of the conflict, because, as one of the things that Vladimir Putin has said, is that 00:05:39.000 --> 00:05:46.000 Ukraine was actually a creation of Soviet Russia, and that it did not exist before. 00:05:46.000 --> 00:05:53.000 That you do have because of the movement of countries and the movement of boundaries. 00:05:53.000 --> 00:06:05.000 You do have a lot of different populations. This map shows the distribution of Russian speakers, and you can see the area of Janetsk and Luhansk are the most highly Russian. 00:06:05.000 --> 00:06:10.000 Speaking also Crimea. down here at the bottom, which is currently contested territory. 00:06:10.000 --> 00:06:14.000 The Russians took it from ukraine in 2,014. 00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:26.000 But you could basically give Crimea up without too much of a fight, because historically, Ukraine had been part of Or, excuse me, Crimea had been part of Russia. 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:36.000 It was given to Ukraine as a gift by Nikita Kristov in 1,956 and was actually an economic drain on Ukraine. 00:06:36.000 --> 00:06:39.000 So the Ukrainians sort of felt like fine. 00:06:39.000 --> 00:06:44.000 Let the Russians have the economic drain. This is also a map of linguistic. 00:06:44.000 --> 00:06:53.000 The majority language by town, city, by city, town, and village councils; and, as you can see, Russian and Ukrainian are not the only 2 languages. 00:06:53.000 --> 00:07:07.000 There are also significant populations to speak Romanian, Crimea and Tatar, Hungarian, Bulgarian, Valgals, Polish, and Albanian, so that the area of Ukraine is a multilinguistic country, the 00:07:07.000 --> 00:07:12.000 Constitution in 1,996 did declare Ukrainian to be the official language. 00:07:12.000 --> 00:07:24.000 When Ukraine became independent, when it declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1,991, there were 3 major issues that caused the Ukrainian population to want to be independent from the 00:07:24.000 --> 00:07:30.000 Soviet Union. One was a dispute over the existence of Ukrainian as an independent language. 00:07:30.000 --> 00:07:36.000 The Russians had a tendency to claim that both Belarus and Ukrainian are dialects of Russian. 00:07:36.000 --> 00:07:48.000 The Belarusians and the Ukrainians disagree strongly with that, and claim that Ukrainian has its own literature, its own existence as a language, and so clearly putin is making continuing to make the 00:07:48.000 --> 00:07:56.000 claim that Ukrainian is not a separate culture and not a separate language, and this has been an ongoing dispute since before 1,991. 00:07:56.000 --> 00:08:09.000 But it was part of the issue in 1,991, the other 2 issues in 91 that caused Ukraine to want to be independent were the Soviet response to the Chernobyl crisis. where it took them. 00:08:09.000 --> 00:08:22.000 3 days before they started to evacuate people from Chernobyl, and the Ukrainians felt that Ukrainian lives had been sacrificed to the unwillingness of the Soviet 00:08:22.000 --> 00:08:28.000 Government to admit that there had been an accident in Chernobyl, and the third issue was the Holomador. 00:08:28.000 --> 00:08:32.000 The famine and genocide of the Ukrainian population. 00:08:32.000 --> 00:08:39.000 In the 1,900, and Twentys and thirtys which had been a result of lenin's and Stalin's collectivization. 00:08:39.000 --> 00:08:52.000 And also it's not just collectivization of farmlands in Ukraine, but also actually a political campaign against the Kulux, who were a class of peasants or not really peasants a class of 00:08:52.000 --> 00:09:05.000 landowning farmers who own significant portions of land that were targeted to be collectivized, and as a result of collectivization, and of the export of massive amounts of grain from Ukraine the 00:09:05.000 --> 00:09:19.000 several 1,000,000 people starved to death, and the Ukrainians see that as a targeted genocide of their population, one of the main issues that Putin is pursuing, of course, is this distinction between Russian speakers 00:09:19.000 --> 00:09:27.000 and Ukrainian speakers, and the idea that the Russian speakers want to be part of Russia rather than part of Ukraine. 00:09:27.000 --> 00:09:35.000 Definitely. There are some Russian speakers who do want to be part of Russia, and that's we can say that in donets in the haunts. 00:09:35.000 --> 00:09:48.000 But there are also many Russian speakers, including the current President, who is himself a Russian, a native Russian speaker, who see Ukraine as a territorial entity that should retain its territorial integrity as it 00:09:48.000 --> 00:09:53.000 stands, or, as it was in its 1,991 boundaries. 00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:59.000 I think i've reached my time so i'm going to wait for questions to say anything else. 00:09:59.000 --> 00:10:07.000 Thank you, Elizabeth. so we'll now, hear from have You shown me 00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:11.000 That's good that you should stop the share screen I think I apologize. 00:10:11.000 --> 00:10:21.000 Okay, So I too, I'm gonna show some slides and thank you so much for all that historical background, because strangely, you're the political scientist. 00:10:21.000 --> 00:10:26.000 I'm the historian you're talking about the past i'm gonna talk about the present. 00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:30.000 So I think I think we're we're put in the right porter. 00:10:30.000 --> 00:10:42.000 So i'm going to talk about a latin American perspective on Ukraine. 00:10:42.000 --> 00:10:57.000 Let's see if I can hide my okay and I wanna start out with this map. 00:10:57.000 --> 00:11:02.000 Which is a map of sanctions placed on Russia by governments around the world. 00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:19.000 And the reason I wanted to start on this map is because I think being located here in the United States, we are sort of exposed to a narrative that that makes a leap that I don't think all of the world makes so 00:11:19.000 --> 00:11:31.000 the narrative is everybody opposes the Russian invasion, and that, I think, is pretty much true of every country, and most of the people in most of the world's countries opposed the Russian invasion. 00:11:31.000 --> 00:11:42.000 But the leap is that if they oppose the Russian invasion, they then support the us-led policy that is called supporting Ukraine. 00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:47.000 And I think for much of the world does not actually support the Us. 00:11:47.000 --> 00:11:54.000 Led policy, and that we see that in this map, of which countries are actually following the U. 00:11:54.000 --> 00:11:59.000 S pressure to impose sanctions on Ukraine on Russia. 00:11:59.000 --> 00:12:05.000 That is so. A couple of things I wanted to mention about this map. 00:12:05.000 --> 00:12:09.000 So what does it? And I think the question is what does it mean to support Ukraine? 00:12:09.000 --> 00:12:14.000 The what We're hearing from the United States government now is that supporting Ukraine means arming Ukraine. 00:12:14.000 --> 00:12:21.000 It means imposing sanctions on Russia. It means expanding and exacerbating this war, and to much of the world. 00:12:21.000 --> 00:12:27.000 That is not the best way to support Ukraine and I would actually say that I think for many people in Ukraine. 00:12:27.000 --> 00:12:38.000 That's also the case of course we don't really have any public opinion polls in ukraine right now, but many Ukrainians are voting with their feet, and saying what we want is to survive we 00:12:38.000 --> 00:12:47.000 want. Our families are children, and we want survival, and they are fleeing, which is what happens in every war. That is, nobody once war. 00:12:47.000 --> 00:12:54.000 But the question is, does pouring arms and upping the ante and exacerbating the tensions? 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:59.000 Is that really a way to support Ukrainians rather than Ukraine? 00:12:59.000 --> 00:13:12.000 If we're talking about what is the government if you ukraine asking for clearly it's asking for more sanctions, more arms, no fly zone, more militarization more war. But i'm I do think we're seeing the 00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:26.000 population of ukraine asking for that and I don't think we're seeing the population of the world asking for that. The other thing that I wanted to point out about this map is that it's very particular parts of the world 00:13:26.000 --> 00:13:34.000 that are supporting the us-led effort to militarize to exacerbate the war it's. 00:13:34.000 --> 00:13:40.000 The colonizers. it's the global north the world the formerly colonized world. 00:13:40.000 --> 00:13:49.000 The global South. many of whom also formed the non-aligned movement. 00:13:49.000 --> 00:13:59.000 They don't necessarily see a u s European alliance as the epitome of good in the world. 00:13:59.000 --> 00:14:17.000 It's actually the United States in Europe that have colonized most of this world that we see not adopting the sanctions and that have repeatedly engaged in unprovoked invasions of sovereign nations in 00:14:17.000 --> 00:14:40.000 the global South. So I think that the global South, in general and Latin America in particular, see a fairly high level of hypocrisy in the way that the United States and Europe are responding to the events and supporting 00:14:40.000 --> 00:14:54.000 Ukraine could also mean pushing for a an off ramp to this war and a diplomatic and negotiated solution, which is much more what we are hearing from the global South. 00:14:54.000 --> 00:15:08.000 So Latin America, of course, is politically diverse and we also don't have a lot of information in terms of public opinion polls of what to people in Latin America want now. 00:15:08.000 --> 00:15:12.000 So i'm going to be looking primarily at governments in Latin America. 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:17.000 And how have they responded to the invasion and to the Us. 00:15:17.000 --> 00:15:28.000 Role in everything that's happening right now. so I sort of divide the countries of Latin America into 3 categories countries, leaning to the right in terms of their government. 00:15:28.000 --> 00:15:32.000 Brazil, Columbia, Costa, Rica, Domitic Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala Countries. 00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:46.000 Leaning to the left. and I note that that the fact that the current governments lean one way or the other doesn't necessarily mean anything about the long term because Latin America is characterized by some pretty dramatic 00:15:46.000 --> 00:16:01.000 swings from right to left in in different electoral moments and we're seeing that right now in terms of chile, which until March the Eleventh would have gone under countries leaning right and now, since the recent election and 00:16:01.000 --> 00:16:09.000 transfer of power. On March the eleventh. The inauguration of the new President Bodhi, is now a country leaning left 00:16:09.000 --> 00:16:24.000 And then I wanted to mention 3 Latin American countries that are currently facing us sanctions Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and because of the harsh us sanctions against those 3 countries, I would 00:16:24.000 --> 00:16:38.000 say 2 things. One Latin American countries in general are pretty leery of sanctions because they feel that their own sovereignty is continually violated by the threat of us sanctions. 00:16:38.000 --> 00:16:44.000 That is, they are basically they're in the both their domestic policies, their economic policies, their foreign policies. 00:16:44.000 --> 00:16:56.000 They are subject to the whims of the united States and international financial institutions, and if they try to pursue an independent domestic or foreign policy, they're likely to be hit with sanctions. 00:16:56.000 --> 00:17:17.000 The other thing about sanctions is that because of the degree of control the United States has on the international financial system, countries under sanctions by the United States are much more dependent on other large countries like China and Russia, not necessarily because they like 00:17:17.000 --> 00:17:22.000 the Chinese or Russian Government more than the u s Government but because that's their only alternative. 00:17:22.000 --> 00:17:27.000 Once the United States has cut them out of the international financial system. 00:17:27.000 --> 00:17:46.000 So in the little chart on the left, I show that basically no Latin American country actively supports Russia's invasion. those voices simply do not exist in Latin America, However, there has been a diversity 00:17:46.000 --> 00:17:52.000 of opinion from these different countries on to what extent do they support the Us. 00:17:52.000 --> 00:18:13.000 Response and that's basically what we see here those that cosigned the oasis Morgan organization of American States Declaration. Those who voted to open a Ukraine debate at the un human rights Council those who sponsored, the Un general 00:18:13.000 --> 00:18:27.000 as that in general. we see. Oh, and I would also just say that Latin America has ever since the beginnings of the Cold War promoted non-alignment. 00:18:27.000 --> 00:18:37.000 That is, every Latin American country was a member of, and continues to be either a member or an observer in the non-aligned movement, and have really tried to both during the Cold War and since the 1,900 and 00:18:37.000 --> 00:18:42.000 Ninetys maintain a non-aligned stance. 00:18:42.000 --> 00:18:46.000 So their reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia, I think, comes from that. 00:18:46.000 --> 00:18:54.000 But we do see a kind of a left right split in in the countries and their responses here, in that the right leaning countries tend to support the Us. 00:18:54.000 --> 00:19:00.000 Approach of sanctions, and arming Ukraine. 00:19:00.000 --> 00:19:10.000 Whereas the left leaners are pressing much more for diplomacy compromised negotiations, and they believe that the Us. stances prolonging and exacerbating the war. 00:19:10.000 --> 00:19:22.000 And I would point in particular to Columbia here one of the most consistently right-wing countries in Latin America in terms of its government, although that may be changing because there is a frontrunner in the upcoming election 00:19:22.000 --> 00:19:33.000 Gustavo Petro, who would bring some pretty radical left-wing ideas into Columbia's government for the first time in a century. 00:19:33.000 --> 00:19:49.000 And Columbia is the only Latin American country that has a partner relationship with Nato, and that has collaborated militarily with the United States, and is also participating in trying to arm Ukraine So the other thing. 00:19:49.000 --> 00:19:55.000 I wanted to say about the left leaners, and even some of the right bleaners. 00:19:55.000 --> 00:20:06.000 Do see a high degree of hypocrisy in the way the United States insists that this is an unprovoked invasion of a sovereign country. 00:20:06.000 --> 00:20:19.000 As in particular, in their treatment of refugees and in their supposed support for international law, because from a Latin American perspective. 00:20:19.000 --> 00:20:26.000 Those things Just don't make sense in this slide i'm not going to go over everything. 00:20:26.000 --> 00:20:33.000 Obviously it's very detailed, but I just wanted to point out the bombs dropped by the United States in the past 20 years. 00:20:33.000 --> 00:20:36.000 All of them in unprovoked attacks on sovereign countries. 00:20:36.000 --> 00:20:43.000 300,000. that's a daily average of 46 people in the United States tend not to even be aware of this. 00:20:43.000 --> 00:20:50.000 So when we hear criticism of Russia for an unprovoked attack on a sovereign country, we think oh, we would never do anything like that. 00:20:50.000 --> 00:21:01.000 But in fact, we consistently have done things like that, and Latin Americans are quite aware of this number killed by us troops in unprovoked attacks against sovereign countries since world. 00:21:01.000 --> 00:21:08.000 War Ii. about 12,000,000 and on the left-hand side I have unprovoked attacks against sovereign countries. 00:21:08.000 --> 00:21:15.000 In Latin America on the right hand side, in other parts of the world, that again, I feel like much of the Us. 00:21:15.000 --> 00:21:24.000 Population is not even aware of the ongoing, unprovoked attacks against sovereign countries that the United States has engaged in much less the history. 00:21:24.000 --> 00:21:34.000 Latin Americans are also quite aware of how refugees from Latin American countries have been and continue to be treated by the United States. 00:21:34.000 --> 00:21:52.000 And you know, when we look at that colonial division of the Mac that I showed you at the beginning. I also wanted to point to some of the commentaries in the media and from politicians that that support Latin Americans view, that there's a lot 00:21:52.000 --> 00:22:07.000 of hypocrisy going on here and that race is playing a big role in why this war seems particularly bad to Europeans and the United States, whereas wars in their countries don't i'll just read a couple of these 00:22:07.000 --> 00:22:16.000 Cbs News Senior. Foreign correspondent ukraine Isn't a place with all due respect like Iraq or Afghanistan that has seen conflict raging for decades. 00:22:16.000 --> 00:22:26.000 This is a relatively civilized relatively European I have to choose these words carefully to city where one wouldn't expect that, or hope that it's going to happen. 00:22:26.000 --> 00:22:28.000 Well, people of color in the third world understand that to be? 00:22:28.000 --> 00:22:35.000 Oh, so our countries are where these things are supposed to happen, not white European countries. 00:22:35.000 --> 00:22:39.000 Former deputy prosecutor, General of Ukraine, who told the Bbc. 00:22:39.000 --> 00:22:46.000 It's very emotional for me, because I see European people with blue eyes and blonde hair being killed every day, and the Bbc. 00:22:46.000 --> 00:22:56.000 Host replies, I understand and respect the emotion. so you can look at these on your own. 00:22:56.000 --> 00:23:04.000 I see I'm running out of time but I did want to end with what we might call the far left outside of government in Latin America. 00:23:04.000 --> 00:23:15.000 The Sabatista revolutionary movement in indigenous revolutionary movement in Japas, Mexico, which represents much more than just the Sabatistas. 00:23:15.000 --> 00:23:27.000 I think there are very well understood to represent a coherent left-wing position in Latin America that clearly says there's an aggressor force the Russian army. 00:23:27.000 --> 00:23:41.000 There are big capital capital interests involved on both sides. Those who now suffer the delusions of some and the cynical economic calculation of others, are the peoples of Russia and Ukraine and subatistas we Do not 00:23:41.000 --> 00:23:45.000 support one state or another, but those who fight for life against the system. 00:23:45.000 --> 00:23:48.000 During the multinational invasion of Iraq. 00:23:48.000 --> 00:23:51.000 The U. S. army, with the U. S. army at its head. 00:23:51.000 --> 00:23:53.000 There were mobilizations around the world against that war. 00:23:53.000 --> 00:24:00.000 No one in their right mind thought that opposing the invasion meant siding with Saddam Hussein. 00:24:00.000 --> 00:24:04.000 Now it's a similar situation. neither zelensky nor putin stop the war. 00:24:04.000 --> 00:24:11.000 Those who win in this war are the great arms Consortia, and the big capitals that see the opportunity to conquer, destroy, rebuild territories. 00:24:11.000 --> 00:24:17.000 The war must be stopped now, if it is maintained, and, as is to be expected, it escalates. 00:24:17.000 --> 00:24:21.000 Then perhaps there will be no one to notice the scenery. 00:24:21.000 --> 00:24:30.000 After the battle the South autistic communities call for protests and mobilizations against all capitalist wars currently being waged in multiple corners of the planet. 00:24:30.000 --> 00:24:41.000 These wars are happening not only in Ukraine, but also in Palestine, Kurdistan, Syria, on the Makuchi people on all the originary peoples of the world. 00:24:41.000 --> 00:24:50.000 Sorry I I tried so hard to keep it to 10 min. but I didn't quite make it. 00:24:50.000 --> 00:24:55.000 I think you did actually so. Thank you so much. Our next speaker is Chris Moyle. 00:24:55.000 --> 00:25:10.000 Hi! welcome everybody! Thank you for coming. Thank you, Abby, for those that insight an intellectual and cultural historian of modern Europe, with only 10 to 12 min to explain a conflict with hundreds of years of complex history. 00:25:10.000 --> 00:25:18.000 I really struggle to frame my section for the panel, and I really am happy that Elizabeth did all the historical groundwork for the 2 historians. 00:25:18.000 --> 00:25:30.000 But, as I often do when coming to speak about history, I turn to other historians, the lot being born Canadian historian motors, Eckstein's, in his brilliant Autobiographical book on World War 00:25:30.000 --> 00:25:42.000 Ii walking since daybreak has included with this line 45 is not our victory, as we often like to think 1,945 is our problem for today. 00:25:42.000 --> 00:25:48.000 I'd like to modify Mr. estein's words, and begin with the phrase, 1,989 is our problem. 00:25:48.000 --> 00:25:52.000 What do I mean by 1,989 is our problem, after all. 00:25:52.000 --> 00:26:00.000 The iconic image of that year was east and West Germans standing together, embracing atop the Berlin wall near the Brandenburg Gate. 00:26:00.000 --> 00:26:10.000 The Cold war was over, Communism in the Soviet Union had collapsed, and a new age of freedom was dawning for the world. The 1,989 was not our victory. 00:26:10.000 --> 00:26:21.000 As we assumed it, was our problem, because Europe had 3 very different versions of 1,989 that emerged and soon turned into different memories and meanings of that crucial year. 00:26:21.000 --> 00:26:34.000 What i'd like to do now is just briefly go through in a very schematic way, and obviously an over generalized way, looking at how 3 different parts of Europe looked at 1,989 I'm going to start 00:26:34.000 --> 00:26:41.000 with Western Europe, moved to Eastern Europe, and then to the former Soviet Union and Russia to start with. 00:26:41.000 --> 00:26:54.000 In Western Europe there was a much more mood it's a muted sense of triumph, much less than the full-throated reagan and bush and American hubris that said that we won the cold war and we buried 00:26:54.000 --> 00:26:58.000 Communism in the Soviet Union into the ash sheep of history. 00:26:58.000 --> 00:27:12.000 This, I think, led to what historian Timothy Snider calls the politics of inevitability, or a belief in Western Europe that liberal democracy and capitalism were the inevitable, and that more individualism more capitalism 00:27:12.000 --> 00:27:21.000 more consumerism, more technology, more oil and gas and more globalization automatically and naturally produced progress. 00:27:21.000 --> 00:27:27.000 This attitude culminated in francis Wukiyama's famous but ill-informed thesis of the end of ideology. 00:27:27.000 --> 00:27:42.000 Western European saw 1,989 is a continuation of the good decisions made after 1,945, and then how they successfully negotiated 45 years of politics culture and society between the 00:27:42.000 --> 00:27:56.000 superpowers. Encouraged by the end of the Cold War and the politics of inevitability, Western European powers, integrated into the European Union, recommended to the security guarantees of the last remaining cold war defense 00:27:56.000 --> 00:28:07.000 packs in Nato there's a very different memory of 1,989 in Eastern Europe and the errors formally under the totalitarian rule, and economic iron ring of the Soviet union's 00:28:07.000 --> 00:28:20.000 Eastern bloc in those parts of Europe. 1,989 was the expression of numerous and very different people's, revolutions in countries like Poland, Czechoslovakia, hungry Romania, and 00:28:20.000 --> 00:28:33.000 others Communism didn't collapse due to inevitability, but because East Europeans themselves provided an alternative civil society to the violent, oppressive, and economic failing, Soviet masters in their puppet 00:28:33.000 --> 00:28:37.000 regimes. Communism didn't collapse eastern Europeans pushed it over. 00:28:37.000 --> 00:28:51.000 Unlike the democracies of Western Europe with Marshall aid and us investment. However, the new democracies of Eastern Europe were poor with mid-century infrastructure an environmental disaster left over from years of soviet economic 00:28:51.000 --> 00:28:57.000 exploitation with the project of building a modern democracy and market economy in the shadow of the West. 00:28:57.000 --> 00:29:05.000 Europe's poor cousins They looked at the eu membership, and the Nato protection against any revival of Russian colonialism. 00:29:05.000 --> 00:29:15.000 Liberal democracy was far from inevitable. In Eastern Europe inequalities of wealth, corruption, the global financial crisis of 2,007, 2,008. 00:29:15.000 --> 00:29:28.000 The migrant crisis after the war in Syria, in 2,014, created opportunities for nationalists and authoritarian Populist parties and leaders who rose and remain in power in places like Poland Hungry 00:29:28.000 --> 00:29:40.000 Serbia and the Czech Republic the third area I'd like to focus on is the former Soviet Union. further to the east, as Russia and its immediate neighbors in Georgia. 00:29:40.000 --> 00:29:49.000 Belarus, Ukraine, and Crimea struggled to come to terms with the suddenness of 1,989, a young former Kgb agent, Vladimir Putin, saw 1,900 and 00:29:49.000 --> 00:29:54.000 89 as a catastrophe, Russian nationalist committed to the use of power. 00:29:54.000 --> 00:30:01.000 He began a 30 year project to recraft the memory and change the consequences of 1,989 for Russia. 00:30:01.000 --> 00:30:11.000 He created a kleptocracy among friends and families, an authoritarian regime. as an alternative to liberal democracy, which he saw as dangerous, foreign and weak. 00:30:11.000 --> 00:30:15.000 He closed down opposition groups and free Press as decadent. 00:30:15.000 --> 00:30:20.000 He imprisoned his political opponents and killed in Maine the leaders of other countries. 00:30:20.000 --> 00:30:27.000 He used the precious resources and and rebuilt the once great Russian army into an offensive regional force. 00:30:27.000 --> 00:30:38.000 He maintained a nuclear force, while those predecessors in 1,995, convinced the Ukrainians to surrender their nuclear weapons in the promise to quote never invade their nation over 00:30:38.000 --> 00:30:47.000 the last 20 years he sought to counter every move of liberal democracies, and Western and Eastern Europe wrecked the expansion of the European Union In Nato. 00:30:47.000 --> 00:30:59.000 You saw the West endless hunger for oil and natural gas, and use his resources to create a hydrocarbon weapon made up of refineries and pipelines that could cripple the West most 00:30:59.000 --> 00:31:14.000 importantly to me, at least as an intellectual historian, he created an alternative, imagined history of Russia, and this relationship with Georgia, Belarus, Crimea, Ukraine, and he integrated this into his imagined history 00:31:14.000 --> 00:31:22.000 of Russia. the He took old myths of Kiev as a soul of Russia, and consulted mystical national histories of Russia, and took them as truth. 00:31:22.000 --> 00:31:28.000 He personally rewrote the history of the Nazi Soviet Pact in 1,939, and held it out as fact. 00:31:28.000 --> 00:31:38.000 He spun conspiracy theories about fascists in Ukraine, culminating in the myths, spouted by his mouthpiece, and foreign minister Lavro right before the invasion 00:31:38.000 --> 00:31:47.000 stating Ukraine was not a sovereign country, and that Russians living in the eastern provinces were victims of genocide by Ukrainian fascist. 00:31:47.000 --> 00:31:57.000 The dangerous words. These were clearly false flags, planted on the eve of invasion, between 19, between 2,015 and 2,022. 00:31:57.000 --> 00:32:10.000 He put his army and his mystical Russian nationalism into action, and invaded or manipulated politics to Pro-russian positions in Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia, and Belarus he planned to Overrun Ukraine in a matter of 00:32:10.000 --> 00:32:20.000 days, and install a puppet regime loyal to him in his Russian imperial dream, he would erase the catastrophe of 1,989, and replace it with a new glorious 00:32:20.000 --> 00:32:29.000 myth. So how do these different histories and memories of 1,989 explain the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 22? 00:32:29.000 --> 00:32:45.000 It actually doesn't. But it does provide a context for you to understand and consider the competing interpretations of the conflict, invasion, and war that are filling our media feeds every reminds us that history is not mere fact but a 00:32:45.000 --> 00:32:49.000 search for usable memory as Haitian historian, Michelle Ralph Tru. 00:32:49.000 --> 00:32:56.000 Low States. History is in the seams between reality and storytelling, between what happened and what is said to have happened. 00:32:56.000 --> 00:33:02.000 History is always subject to memory myths, and, most importantly, perspectives. 00:33:02.000 --> 00:33:05.000 These perspectives create the realities in which politics are made. 00:33:05.000 --> 00:33:16.000 Policies are crafted and wars are fought, but it does raise a essential questions about the meaning, significance, and consequence of the Russian invasion. 00:33:16.000 --> 00:33:29.000 So I have 3 questions that I think we can consider did the triumphalism around 1,989, and the attendant politics of inevitability blind us and Western Europe to the danger of putin's 00:33:29.000 --> 00:33:33.000 nationalistic and colonial ambitions in the territories of the former Soviet Union. 00:33:33.000 --> 00:33:43.000 Equally importantly did the Us. and Western nations play a part in the current crisis by advocating for an expanded Eu and Nato membership. 00:33:43.000 --> 00:33:52.000 Knowing of Russia's security concerns second question will populous regimes in Eastern Europe, and emergent ones in Western Europe and around the globe. 00:33:52.000 --> 00:34:05.000 See Putin's nationalism and anti-western anti-us wreckage policy as an attractive model for post liberal Europe in the world. Putin thinks so as he tutors these populace and things like the 00:34:05.000 --> 00:34:09.000 myth of sovereignty just yesterday, day before yesterday. Excuse me. 00:34:09.000 --> 00:34:22.000 He gave a lecture on Cancel culture, the dangers of Lgbtq communities, the linkage of criminality and immigration, the centrality of aligning and politicizing the judiciary and the dangers of 00:34:22.000 --> 00:34:26.000 an open and free media to. We know that American Populists are listening. 00:34:26.000 --> 00:34:31.000 What is putin's endgame here like stalin before him? 00:34:31.000 --> 00:34:34.000 Will he be able to negotiate from power when the tanks stop? 00:34:34.000 --> 00:34:48.000 Or was this a colossal mistake made of his own hubris of inevitability that will further integrate liberal democracies into the West, solidify the Eu and expand the desire for 9 aligned European 00:34:48.000 --> 00:34:53.000 nations in Europe to join Nato. Will Russia be a pariah State and its people suffer? 00:34:53.000 --> 00:35:09.000 The economic disaster due to sanctions. I began this conversation with, I think, a broad look at 1,989, and particularly the politics of anevitability. 00:35:09.000 --> 00:35:21.000 This idea that, believing that liberal democracy is the only pathway to modernity, and it comes about naturally and is progress, It's caused us to miss the possibilities of both putin and the contemporary 00:35:21.000 --> 00:35:25.000 authoritarian Populism wave that is sweeping the world. 00:35:25.000 --> 00:35:32.000 The threat posed by authoritarian populism is very real, and believe me, they have agency, and they have agents of change. 00:35:32.000 --> 00:35:38.000 Second, and most importantly stop this war innocence. 00:35:38.000 --> 00:35:43.000 Civilians are dying in Ukraine, and soldiers on both sides are being killed. 00:35:43.000 --> 00:35:50.000 Advocate for our political leaders to help identify and negotiate a sensible off ramp that stops the war. 00:35:50.000 --> 00:35:57.000 Resist the urge for revenge, or to make more weapons that will make more war and make more death. 00:35:57.000 --> 00:36:03.000 Thank you, and i'll look forward to your questions thank you very much. 00:36:03.000 --> 00:36:07.000 And then our last speaker is, Kanye said as well. 00:36:07.000 --> 00:36:17.000 Thank you, Vanessa, and thank you to 3 colleagues for your for your excellent presentations. 00:36:17.000 --> 00:36:33.000 Underdog, like the other 3 I actually don't have a formal presentation that I have put together, because the events in Ukraine and the consequences of what the events in the Crane they may bring things that have 00:36:33.000 --> 00:36:37.000 been part of my academic and intellectual thinking for decades. 00:36:37.000 --> 00:36:43.000 They're part of what I teach in my classes part of my what my research agenda has been on. 00:36:43.000 --> 00:36:52.000 So it's it's not something new that I had to come up with in terms of my thinking just because this war happened. 00:36:52.000 --> 00:37:10.000 And so that's where i'm going to focus on things that are not necessarily specific to Ukraine, but which have been activated or triggered by this this war in in Ukraine the 00:37:10.000 --> 00:37:17.000 international system that we've been living under for centuries now, but especially in the Post World War. 00:37:17.000 --> 00:37:24.000 Ii time period. it's the thing known as the Liberal international order. 00:37:24.000 --> 00:37:34.000 The origins of water go back to Westphalia in 1,648, and we have had several different types of orders in the centuries. 00:37:34.000 --> 00:37:42.000 But following the end of the Second World War, 1,945, the victorious allies led by the United States created this new system. 00:37:42.000 --> 00:37:52.000 The liberal international order a system that would be based on a lot of the things that Professor Mariello talked about in the context of 1,989. 00:37:52.000 --> 00:38:01.000 But there are. There are things that go back to 1,945 simply the fact that from 1,945 to 1,989. 00:38:01.000 --> 00:38:15.000 Those things were placed on boss, because the conflict with the Soviet Union in the Cold War, so 1,989 actually is a continuation intellectually, of ideas that began in 1,944 and one 00:38:15.000 --> 00:38:21.000 1,945 that the victorious allies had hoped to create in the world. 00:38:21.000 --> 00:38:32.000 In 1,945, but had to wait until 1,989 to truly get going in terms of creating that liberal international order. 00:38:32.000 --> 00:38:47.000 The little international order relies on many different pieces. Central to the order was international Law, a so called rules based international system. 00:38:47.000 --> 00:38:53.000 When we say rules phased it automatically, means things are black and white. 00:38:53.000 --> 00:38:59.000 That's what is meant by a rule either you follow the rule or you don't. 00:38:59.000 --> 00:39:18.000 There's not much space in a rules-based system 4 gray areas, and obviously the the people who run the system who control the system are going to create and enforce those rules based upon their preferences. 00:39:18.000 --> 00:39:36.000 Their interests, their values. Sometimes that includes democracy. It happens in domestic rules, systems as well, right where the rich and the powerful or the connector sometimes get away with things that the rest of us would not be able to get away with 00:39:36.000 --> 00:39:51.000 it happens, but a rule. Space system ultimately is about a very clear world, where everything is known and right and wrong are divided by cleaner line. 00:39:51.000 --> 00:40:14.000 Good and bad, divided by a clear line problem, going beginning from, say, the late 1,900 ninetys onwards, and especially in recent years, is that the world that we are living in and going into in the future is not a black and white 00:40:14.000 --> 00:40:33.000 world. it's decidedly. gray area where you don't have a lot of these clear lines separating things the lions are blurred at us, and this change in the kind of world we live in is being driven not by 00:40:33.000 --> 00:40:53.000 politics or policy, but by science and technology. It is a diffusion of everybody, even such things as military power and economic power which for centuries had been entirely held by states and governments. 00:40:53.000 --> 00:41:02.000 I'm no longer that way. you have significant diffusion in military power and power. 00:41:02.000 --> 00:41:08.000 Financial power, wealth in the world, including 2 non-state actors. 00:41:08.000 --> 00:41:23.000 But these rules that we have come up with for the system are based on things being clearly black and white, that can be applied to States and to governments. 00:41:23.000 --> 00:41:37.000 So the reality of the world no longer matches liberal international rules-based order, and for years now we don't. 00:41:37.000 --> 00:41:42.000 Even so, scholars who are ingrained in liberal internationalism. 00:41:42.000 --> 00:41:51.000 People like Richard Has, or or Joni, or John Eichenberry. 00:41:51.000 --> 00:42:03.000 All of these colors, who are very big on the liberal international system, have been admitting for years that you have this mismatch between the reality of the world and what the system. 00:42:03.000 --> 00:42:12.000 Wants fine right? And so obviously the people who are vested in the system are going to desperately try to hold on to the system. 00:42:12.000 --> 00:42:18.000 Hold on, you know. try to strengthen the system to whatever they can, to preserve the system. 00:42:18.000 --> 00:42:27.000 Others have understood you. they're moving to a post liberal system, a post rules-based system. 00:42:27.000 --> 00:42:38.000 That also, then, means a post. America dominated or West dominated system, where everything is gray area. 00:42:38.000 --> 00:42:56.000 Nothing is right or wrong. clearly nothing is good or bad clearly rulestone to apply, or when they are applied, they're based on who's the strongest and not truly on the that's a very scary. 00:42:56.000 --> 00:43:17.000 World a terrifying world. Most human beings actually would prefer authoritarian system over freedom, if that authoritarian system provided consistency and told them this is how things are. 00:43:17.000 --> 00:43:22.000 That's what human beings want they want order they want consistency. 00:43:22.000 --> 00:43:30.000 They want rules, even rules that are unfair because we understand them. 00:43:30.000 --> 00:43:40.000 But a world without rules, a world without lines, a world that is completely great, amoral, not immoral, immoral. 00:43:40.000 --> 00:43:52.000 No principles, no fundamental core values. Anything goes That is a terrifying world for most human beings. 00:43:52.000 --> 00:44:17.000 So as we transition away from this American lead, Western dominated liberal international system based on rules so such as they were people out there in the world looking to see, what can we do to keep up with a new system to replace this because of 00:44:17.000 --> 00:44:28.000 no rules gray area world. We don't want we cannot have we have to have something new to replace the outgoing system. 00:44:28.000 --> 00:44:38.000 And where do you normally go to find something new? You actually go back in time. 00:44:38.000 --> 00:44:44.000 In the history to look for things that exist at. Before that you can potentially bring that. 00:44:44.000 --> 00:45:00.000 I say this is how we wanted to be so for Russia, for putting one of the main actors who understand the that deliberately to national order is not for them, not something they want. 00:45:00.000 --> 00:45:04.000 What do you do? You will go back to the nineteenth century. 00:45:04.000 --> 00:45:18.000 You go back to World War Ii. and to say, what are some of the things that we can draw from that time period, and insist that today is 20, s, 25 first secretary world. 00:45:18.000 --> 00:45:23.000 Be that way. So so for Russia it is all about redrawing borders. 00:45:23.000 --> 00:45:38.000 Russian nationalism. I echoing a lot of the same things that leaders in the 1,900 twentys and thirtys and fortys, because that's their frame of reference for Russia the high point of Russian 00:45:38.000 --> 00:45:44.000 power and prestige in the world was 1,945, having just defeated Nazi Germany. 00:45:44.000 --> 00:45:50.000 Their intellectual thinking is frozen from 1,945. 00:45:50.000 --> 00:45:53.000 So they go back to 1,945. 00:45:53.000 --> 00:46:10.000 As their frame of reference. Right? You want to get the Russian people mobilized in a war, do you say to them, the bad guys we are fighting are Nazis because nothing galvanizes the Russian people more than to be able 00:46:10.000 --> 00:46:15.000 to say, these are the same people. Before packing the quarter for great patriotic war. 00:46:15.000 --> 00:46:32.000 Russia wants to go back in time to create a system that is based on spheres of influence that is based on ultra-nationalism. 00:46:32.000 --> 00:46:40.000 That is based on redrawing of borders based on a perceived sense of the Russian nation. 00:46:40.000 --> 00:46:46.000 Right, I mean, Elizabeth talked earlier about these Russian speakers in Ukraine. let's be honest. 00:46:46.000 --> 00:47:02.000 They're only Russian speakers that doesn't make them actually questions right. And these people spoke rashly only because in the Soviet Union that's what they needed to do to get a decent job to have any social 00:47:02.000 --> 00:47:06.000 mobility. So yeah, I mean, you know, in in Uzbekistan. 00:47:06.000 --> 00:47:14.000 They speak. Russian, too, does not make Uzbek's Russians 2. No, it doesn't in fact. 00:47:14.000 --> 00:47:29.000 Now we have very solid evidence from new Hasque and and and don't ask, and Kurzan and even the Crimea, where these so-called Russian speakers taught what to be part of Russia then know what 00:47:29.000 --> 00:47:43.000 a miserable life it is to be a part of Russia They'd much rather be part of a liberal Ukraine than putin's Russia support for being Russia has cratered in Crimea since 2,000 00:47:43.000 --> 00:47:49.000 and 14 in Donazka Bluhansk. 00:47:49.000 --> 00:48:02.000 Right ethnic Rush I mean I shouldn't say brush. and speaking Ukrainians are fighting alongside Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians openly telling any news media that Interviews them. 00:48:02.000 --> 00:48:17.000 I don't want to be a part of putin as Russia, but for putting 1,945, and everything before is his only frame of reference, and that's where he wants to take us and so, do others the 00:48:17.000 --> 00:48:32.000 Chinese, the Indians, the South Africans right who are all desperate for a new vision for the world, but who can't bear the idea of a gray area world that's just too scary, too too too frightening so 00:48:32.000 --> 00:48:36.000 you look to history and say, What can we bring back from the nineteenth century? 00:48:36.000 --> 00:48:39.000 What can we bring back from the twentieth century? 00:48:39.000 --> 00:48:52.000 Because those things we understand those things. we are comfortable. Thank you so much to our for presenters. 00:48:52.000 --> 00:49:01.000 So we know about 20 min for questions. So if you want to have ask a question, you can just unmute yourself, or you can post it in the chat. 00:49:01.000 --> 00:49:13.000 I will money to the chat so please go ahead i'll make a quick comment. 00:49:13.000 --> 00:49:18.000 Apologies I had to drop out. I had an advising appointment. 00:49:18.000 --> 00:49:27.000 Many of the things that we see on the news and Yes, we're seeing a very much a western oriented approach to the media. 00:49:27.000 --> 00:49:39.000 What we're not seeing nearly enough is all of the nonviolent protests that are taking place, not only in Ukraine, but also in Russia. 00:49:39.000 --> 00:49:42.000 There are many, many Russians who do not want this war. 00:49:42.000 --> 00:49:53.000 Do not see it as a disaster for themselves in their countries, but particularly when we look at you know Msnbc. 00:49:53.000 --> 00:50:02.000 Or cnn we're not seeing if it gets talked about it gets as sort of oh, by the way, and then we move on other countries. 00:50:02.000 --> 00:50:16.000 News reporting does a little bit better but it's Still, there's very little that we focus on with respect to the nonviolence. And there's been some good examples really powerful examples of non-violence of 00:50:16.000 --> 00:50:21.000 grandmothers in Kirson, who were protesting the Russian soldiers. 00:50:21.000 --> 00:50:43.000 They villages around Zaparasia nuclear plant that slowed the advance of Russian soldiers to give, you know, plant workers enough time to sort of as best they could make safe the the nuclear power plant there. know they're the stories that really 00:50:43.000 --> 00:51:02.000 should be being told, and we just don't see them also the stories of the Polish people in particular, who are greeting refugees with open arms and doing the best they can to provide Ukrainian 00:51:02.000 --> 00:51:08.000 refugees with the services they need, which, as obvious pointed out, is also problematic. 00:51:08.000 --> 00:51:15.000 The polls were not nearly as good when they had Syrian refugees, in fact, refused to take any 00:51:15.000 --> 00:51:26.000 But although it's a selective response the polls have taken more than 60% of the refugees coming from Ukraine and are doing their best to integrate them, and in fact, Poland has been taking 00:51:26.000 --> 00:51:37.000 Ukrainian refugees for a long time Now, the case of Russia also, Greg, I think one problem we might have now is that there is very little reporting. 00:51:37.000 --> 00:51:49.000 That's happening because a lot of people have left I just read this morning that Novaya Gazetta, which was one of the only few remaining opposition voices in Russia, decided to suspend publication because of all the 00:51:49.000 --> 00:52:02.000 risks involved in talking about the war and and i've noticed there's so much less coverage now of what's happening in Russia, because we just don't have the information coming out People are afraid to speak up because of 00:52:02.000 --> 00:52:10.000 the the risk to themselves and people around them but I would say that you know to but what the work gonna stand track. 00:52:10.000 --> 00:52:23.000 So you know it's it's amazing that in the face of all of these restrictions these new laws that have been passed in Russia, that you still have people willing to speak up that is amazing and and and that gives me a lot 00:52:23.000 --> 00:52:46.000 of hope, and I guess I would also say it's kind of amazing Here, in the absence of many restrictions, except those restricting the Russian media, we still aren't hearing very many stories like we are still being I think I feel like we're being 00:52:46.000 --> 00:53:00.000 fed a single narrative here from the entire spectrum of the mass media, and it's extremely hard to even get a hint that the rest of the world might be thinking about this a little bit differently than the united States is Well, 00:53:00.000 --> 00:53:19.000 there is news media from the rest of the world and so I think that's a good segue for me to push back a little bit about this notion that that that in much of the non Western part of the world while people oppose the russian 00:53:19.000 --> 00:53:39.000 invasion. They also just simply want the water to simply end, and for a diplomacy to replace the war as some sort of an alternative to us policy, and I strongly disagree with that India is a good example of a country 00:53:39.000 --> 00:53:52.000 that we can look at a country that has tried to straddle the middle ground between the 2 sides that has abstained, and all the Security Council, and even a general assembly resolutions. 00:53:52.000 --> 00:53:59.000 But in the Indian News media, which I read extensively, which is also quotes that these are not anonymous sources. 00:53:59.000 --> 00:54:11.000 Indian Government officials. People from inside the prime minister's office are talking to the India news media, and they are absolutely on Ukraine's side, so to say. 00:54:11.000 --> 00:54:18.000 I they are not on Ukraine side or that they're not, don't support Ukraine is absolutely wrong. 00:54:18.000 --> 00:54:24.000 They agree with every substantive point being made by Western governments. 00:54:24.000 --> 00:54:40.000 But then they also say we have no choice but to be deferential to the Russians, because someday in the future, India and China are likely to be in the war, and when that day comes, we need for the Russians to 00:54:40.000 --> 00:54:52.000 stay neutral. That is the reason why we are abstaining at the Un. but we are horrified by what the Russians are doing, and fully support Ukraine. 00:54:52.000 --> 00:54:57.000 So that narrative is there, and it is there in African countries. 00:54:57.000 --> 00:55:09.000 It is then Middle Eastern countries, Not in my focus, is on Asia, Asia, and the Middle East Latin America is actually dead last in the regions of the world. 00:55:09.000 --> 00:55:18.000 That I have much knowledge of, but I suspect that the that is true about ordinary average people in North America as well. 00:55:18.000 --> 00:55:25.000 So the point that I was trying to make is that I think there's a kind of a false framing of the 2 sides. 00:55:25.000 --> 00:55:28.000 So either you support Russia or support Ukraine. 00:55:28.000 --> 00:55:45.000 And the reason I focused on the Sabatista statement, and also on the position of many, Virtually all Latin American governments are many Latin American governments is that 00:55:45.000 --> 00:55:58.000 Opposing the Russian invasion does not mean supporting the us-led drive war drives that there's other ways of conceptualizing what opposing the Russian invasion means. 00:55:58.000 --> 00:56:01.000 And you know I think the safatista said it very clearly. 00:56:01.000 --> 00:56:04.000 We opposed the Us. invasion of Iraq. 00:56:04.000 --> 00:56:19.000 That did not mean that we wanted to arm Saddam Hussein; that that that the 2 that the United States plays a really key role here, and one can oppose the Russian invasion, and not feel that the United States is 00:56:19.000 --> 00:56:23.000 supporting Ukraine. What is exactly Ukraine? 00:56:23.000 --> 00:56:32.000 What should be supported is supporting the War and making the war grow, actually supporting the people of Ukraine very much. 00:56:32.000 --> 00:56:40.000 And but that's true of a weak country. right Ultimately the only country in the world that supports Ukraine is Ukraine. 00:56:40.000 --> 00:56:53.000 Every other country in the world ultimately is going to be looking at this through the prism of their national interests, and for and for the United States, the primary national interest ought to be in my view right. 00:56:53.000 --> 00:57:08.000 I mean, you know it's easy for us who are not members of the Government to say this, that on the other, but, for example, of the United States, the priority should be in my view less, about how we help the Ukrainian 00:57:08.000 --> 00:57:15.000 and more about how we defeat the Russians, because defeating Russia is what is in the national interest of the United States. 00:57:15.000 --> 00:57:27.000 Long term. So if we can bleed the Russians dry in Ukraine, tell us exactly the policy that what we're expecting the United States to pursue now that that policy may also be good for the 00:57:27.000 --> 00:57:42.000 Ukrainians be an added benefit and that's for the Ukrainians to decide whether that is, that is the case or not, but that the United States is taking an anti-russia approach to this is entirely 00:57:42.000 --> 00:57:55.000 logical. It's entirely logical. if you want to see a nuclear war, so not everybody thinks that's in the interests of the United States either. 00:57:55.000 --> 00:58:04.000 See, Andrew Darian has a question I think you're muted through. 00:58:04.000 --> 00:58:15.000 I do have a question, although a quick comment, which is to say, these, these were each really wonderful presentations, which I think offered a very unique vantage points. 00:58:15.000 --> 00:58:27.000 One aspect of the conflict that wasn't discussed by any of the panelists is the role of the expansion of Nato in potentially contributing to this conflict. 00:58:27.000 --> 00:58:47.000 A significant reason why Russia saw ukraine as an existential threat was because of the possible expansion of Nato, and given that, we're now at a point in which a negotiated settlement might in fact 00:58:47.000 --> 00:58:54.000 be a quote unquote, neutral Ukraine that stays outside of Nato. 00:58:54.000 --> 00:59:07.000 Why, from the perspective of the panelists, do you think the United States was so reticent to give that assurance to Russia? 00:59:07.000 --> 00:59:13.000 And do you think it would have been enough to have kept the peace? 00:59:13.000 --> 00:59:28.000 And maybe the answer would include a piece at what cost so i'll be interested to hear any comments about that I think that we need to keep in mind that the impetus to expand Nato to Central Europe and i'm gonna 00:59:28.000 --> 00:59:43.000 differ with Chris here on the terminology Central Europeans don't like to be called Eastern Europeans, but the the impetus to expand Nato to Central Europe came from the Central Europeans themselves, so already in 1,900 00:59:43.000 --> 00:59:50.000 and 89. The polls were lobbying to join the Eu and to join Nato, and so the requests have come from those countries. 00:59:50.000 --> 00:59:55.000 They have been met by rhetoric, especially from the Bush administration, but from other Us. 00:59:55.000 --> 01:00:04.000 Administrations about expanding Nato. but the the drive has always been from the Europeans rather than the Us. 01:00:04.000 --> 01:00:09.000 And, in fact, Germany was a much bigger supporter of expanding Nato than the Us. 01:00:09.000 --> 01:00:22.000 Was in terms of neutrality. The Soviet Union tried to impose neutrality on Austria when it became independent in night, in the 1,900 fiftys and the Austrians refused the soviets. 01:00:22.000 --> 01:00:24.000 Wanted it to be part of the Austrian constitution. 01:00:24.000 --> 01:00:33.000 Austria declared neutrality, but they refused to have it be part of their constitution, because they refused to have it imposed from the outside, and I think Ukraine feels the same way. 01:00:33.000 --> 01:00:41.000 Ukraine is a sovereign state that has the right to pick who its alliances are, and to move in one direction or the other. 01:00:41.000 --> 01:00:45.000 And even now Zelensky is vacillating on the issue of neutrality. 01:00:45.000 --> 01:00:55.000 On the one hand, he would like to end the war. On the other hand, he would like to come out with a sovereign and integral Ukraine. 01:00:55.000 --> 01:00:59.000 I also want to take the time to, You know, when we talk about narratives. 01:00:59.000 --> 01:01:06.000 One of the narratives is popular in the United States is that Zelensky is a political meophyte and a political outsider. 01:01:06.000 --> 01:01:11.000 Outsider. Yes, but calling him a political neophyte, would be like calling Stephen Colbert or Trevor. 01:01:11.000 --> 01:01:21.000 Nay, Noah i'll political neophyte Zelensky has been involved in politics and involved in Ukrainian culture for a long time, and has been a major player, and so that's something to keep in 01:01:21.000 --> 01:01:26.000 mind. he's not somebody who suddenly arose to take on this role. 01:01:26.000 --> 01:01:40.000 He has been a Nationalist and a national leader. But the the Nato expansion is really is a question not just of the United States agenda, but of the agenda of the countries who have themselves worked hard to join both 01:01:40.000 --> 01:01:48.000 Nato and the Eu can I quickly add something Oh, go ahead, Amy, i'll wait. 01:01:48.000 --> 01:01:59.000 I was actually going to refer to what you said before in answering Professor Darian, that I think Connie actually articulated quite well. 01:01:59.000 --> 01:02:09.000 The policy of the United States which is to destroy Russia at all costs, and that's why I didn't go that far, not destroy at all costs. 01:02:09.000 --> 01:02:29.000 Go ahead. no no, I wouldn't say that and in fact. you know I I consider myself to come from the real school of international relations, and in in that school the the cardinal rule is that great powers are never ever destroyed right? 01:02:29.000 --> 01:02:37.000 That's why the victorious powers restored the from France to sovereignty in 1,815. 01:02:37.000 --> 01:02:42.000 Because you never ever destroy another great power so anyway. 01:02:42.000 --> 01:02:55.000 To drew this question. It is a very good question too, because see, that's the difference between policy and rhetoric and and the There's a big gap between policy and rhetoric. 01:02:55.000 --> 01:03:03.000 Coming from Washington. Reason v. Ukraine and Nato right that the rhetoric is all about. 01:03:03.000 --> 01:03:08.000 Well, you know we can't rule out ukraine being part of Nato ever we can't close the door. 01:03:08.000 --> 01:03:21.000 There's going to be no arbitrary closing of goes to Nato membership for any country right? although technically there is one door that is close right, and that is Russian membership. 01:03:21.000 --> 01:03:34.000 In Nato that, though, is effective because but the dough is open for every other country in the in the sort of the Eurasian space to be a member of data that's the rhetoric But policy. 01:03:34.000 --> 01:03:41.000 Wise. The United States actually has always agreed that Ukraine could never be a part of Nato right. 01:03:41.000 --> 01:03:47.000 And and the reason is very simple. Ukraine ever became a member of Nato. 01:03:47.000 --> 01:04:01.000 The United States would probably have to increase its defense budget by a good 20 to 30%, because we would have to station 4 or 5 armored divisions in Eastern Ukraine to be able to Guarantee 01:04:01.000 --> 01:04:05.000 ukraine's article 5 defense it's not defensible. 01:04:05.000 --> 01:04:17.000 We Can't do that right now. we can't so from a policy standpoint. Ukraine is not defensible, especially by a United States that is wanting to cut defense budgets a shift defense 01:04:17.000 --> 01:04:23.000 resources away to other areas, and is extremely unserious about its article. 01:04:23.000 --> 01:04:28.000 5 commitments to the countries that are already in Nato. 01:04:28.000 --> 01:04:50.000 So So if the United States was never going to seriously defend Ukraine, and you are a realist wouldn't a realist position, Say that putin's perspective and behavior are predictable, he said he showed us the 01:04:50.000 --> 01:04:58.000 template in Chechnya, in Georgia and in Syria, just absolutely true. 01:04:58.000 --> 01:05:04.000 I agree right, and we had a panel. Alex was on that panel with me in 2,014. 01:05:04.000 --> 01:05:11.000 After the Crimean invasion, where I predicted that this was going to happen down the road right? 01:05:11.000 --> 01:05:15.000 And this woman itself, going all the way back to October and November. 01:05:15.000 --> 01:05:19.000 But students in my fall semester classes will be able to tell you. 01:05:19.000 --> 01:05:27.000 I said, this war is happening It's happening for sure and I even said, it'll happen the week after the end of the Olympics. 01:05:27.000 --> 01:05:34.000 I said that in October and November of of the fall, because yes, you are absolutely correct. 01:05:34.000 --> 01:05:45.000 But , , they're most, I mean, not my area of expertise, but it seems like there will most likely be a negotiated settlement. 01:05:45.000 --> 01:06:04.000 It will be a dirty deal in which both sides are very unhappy, and what we, I think, will have to show, for it is a neutered, broken, neutral Ukraine that stands outside of Nato 01:06:04.000 --> 01:06:11.000 with massive loss of life. millions of refugees, destruction of homes. 01:06:11.000 --> 01:06:23.000 Could that have been pre-empted by a less firm stance on Nato by the United States and its allies and a negotiated settlement? 01:06:23.000 --> 01:06:30.000 If, in fact, we are all on the side of the Ukrainians, could there not have been another? 01:06:30.000 --> 01:06:39.000 Yeah, right? exactly. right and that's how it should have been true right in in that I real world, that's how it should have been right. 01:06:39.000 --> 01:06:54.000 And let's you know, remember that Zelensky all the way up to the moment of the first Russian bombs falling on Ukraine kept pleading with put in to negotiate and to talk and 01:06:54.000 --> 01:07:00.000 it was put in who flatly said, I have nothing to say to Zalenski: I don't even recognize Zalanski right. 01:07:00.000 --> 01:07:06.000 That was the problem Right? Yes, the Us. made a whole bunch of mistakes. you know. 01:07:06.000 --> 01:07:16.000 Don't even get we started on biden's what passes for diplomacy in the Biden administration, and that's that's been the case for 5 us administrations in a row. 01:07:16.000 --> 01:07:24.000 Now. Okay, but let's not get side tracked on any of that right Ukraine versus Russia. 01:07:24.000 --> 01:07:41.000 The only problem to everything you just said to was putin's ego, put in Ego dictated that he was going to get everything that he wanted, not a negotiated settlement a crushing of the ukrainians and 01:07:41.000 --> 01:07:48.000 him, getting unilaterally everything what he wanted right for the first 3 weeks of the war. 01:07:48.000 --> 01:07:53.000 What was the operative word that put it in. All of his lackeys, kept using surrender. 01:07:53.000 --> 01:07:58.000 So surrender, surrender. We want a Ukrainian surrender now. 01:07:58.000 --> 01:08:04.000 They have stopped using that work. But that was the word before, and that was the problem. 01:08:04.000 --> 01:08:19.000 And you. We had to go through this war, and the misery and the suffering and the death and the destruction, because that is what has led, put in to climb down from his ego perch. 01:08:19.000 --> 01:08:34.000 And to now be willing to say over i'm willing to compromise which he was unwilling to do previous to February the 20 fourth, and the Wednesday before the war started last thing Zelensky 01:08:34.000 --> 01:08:41.000 said, is that Nato membership for ukraine is a dream that he was willing to back down on that. 01:08:41.000 --> 01:08:50.000 And I said that's the off-ram and but putin had no intention of taking that off Rampusier, or decided on the all or nothing war, that he thought it could win in 4 days. 01:08:50.000 --> 01:09:02.000 That's right well, but but it's also makes sense that he would say that right, Chris, because you all you don't want to just unilaterally throw away. a bargaining chip right good and and there's 2 things 01:09:02.000 --> 01:09:11.000 Here, too, one is that the United States has a history of encouraging countries in bad positions to stand up so Hungary in 1,956, for example. 01:09:11.000 --> 01:09:17.000 And then not providing not ponying up the assistance because it's not in our national interest to opponent the assistance. 01:09:17.000 --> 01:09:24.000 So We've. done this before. the other thing is that putin invading Ukraine would be like putin invading Poland. 01:09:24.000 --> 01:09:30.000 It was a stupid thing to do, and history should have told him not to do it. 01:09:30.000 --> 01:09:41.000 But You're Right He has enormous hubris and he's learning now from experience that his soldiers aren't really interested, and the Ukrainian soldiers are highly motivated. 01:09:41.000 --> 01:09:56.000 Ukrainian civilians are highly motivated and the idea of invading and holding ukraine is something that putin needs to back down and away from, because it will be enormously costly for him to right 01:09:56.000 --> 01:10:10.000 and, in fact, i'll take from last week's negotiations from But I I had got from directly from Ukrainian sources was that on all these other issues there is no agreement between the 2 sides on the issue of Nato 01:10:10.000 --> 01:10:17.000 and the issue of the Russian language on the issue of the quote, unquote denatsification of Ukraine. 01:10:17.000 --> 01:10:29.000 On all of these issues There's a deal the only problem is that the Russians are still insisting on dismembering Ukrainian territory. 01:10:29.000 --> 01:10:42.000 And on that issue the Zelensky government cannot Give him, I I think I think there's a compromise to be had on Crimea, not on the Don das. 01:10:42.000 --> 01:10:50.000 No, we have time, probably for another one or 2 questions comments by our panelists. 01:10:50.000 --> 01:11:03.000 I just have one quick observation, which is that Ukraine is a semi-presidential state, which means it has a powerful Prime Minister, and I bet you nobody can tell me who the Prime Minister. 01:11:03.000 --> 01:11:08.000 Is because he gets no airtime at all, no news at all. 01:11:08.000 --> 01:11:13.000 If you Google Danish Spielv, you get nothing which is fascinating to me. 01:11:13.000 --> 01:11:24.000 Well, you know that you know the deputy prime minister a woman. she's fantastic, and I mean she only talks in Ukrainian, and I have to read all the English subtitles. 01:11:24.000 --> 01:11:30.000 But she's fantastic, too, can I then ask I mean unless someone else has a question. 01:11:30.000 --> 01:11:38.000 I don't wanna localize, but otherwise I have a quick questions for all of you, which is obviously this has affected our classroom very much. 01:11:38.000 --> 01:11:41.000 I have a lot of students who feel really overwhelmed by what's happening. 01:11:41.000 --> 01:11:49.000 They're worried they sometimes don't have all the information they need to really understand what's happening, or the consequences are. 01:11:49.000 --> 01:11:58.000 So i'm just wondering if you could just tell us what you have done in your classroom to address to talk about this conflict, and what you have found helpful. 01:11:58.000 --> 01:12:02.000 And then oh, there's one more question in the chat news sources. 01:12:02.000 --> 01:12:07.000 So that actually relates to my questions. So basically, how what do we tell to our students? 01:12:07.000 --> 01:12:12.000 How do we tie them in understanding the conflict, and how do we help them? 01:12:12.000 --> 01:12:29.000 Just process all this for new sources if you're on a platform called Telegram. 01:12:29.000 --> 01:12:40.000 There is a man named Troy Mcgrath, who has been posting updates from Russia regularly, and they are amazing updates. 01:12:40.000 --> 01:12:45.000 I get them actually on Facebook through a group called Why we Study Eastern Europe. 01:12:45.000 --> 01:12:48.000 But he claims that he posts a telegram as well. 01:12:48.000 --> 01:12:52.000 So telegram is apparently a good place to get things. 01:12:52.000 --> 01:13:11.000 So my part, I don't have any specific sources to give because I have long been one of those people who believes that all new media sources nowadays are tainted and are problematic, and have their biases, and and so on 01:13:11.000 --> 01:13:27.000 so I have learned over the years to cast a very wide net in terms of the sources that I read regardless of. you know which side they come from. and so I don't I don't hold to anyone or even a small group 01:13:27.000 --> 01:13:34.000 of users that are my sources, you know. I I look at I just here I look at, I look at the Bbc. 01:13:34.000 --> 01:13:45.000 I I I have extensively been interviewed in the past by Sputnik News, which is a State-owned news organization in Russia. 01:13:45.000 --> 01:13:59.000 And with whom I've had a very good relationship although the last interview they did of me was back in September to talk about Afghanistan. and They have not come to me about Ukraine for 01:13:59.000 --> 01:14:09.000 obvious reasons. So I I actually you know, get information from a wide range of sources, and and I can't point to any one source. 01:14:09.000 --> 01:14:13.000 Sorry I found it necessary. Thanks, Connie. I found it necessary. 01:14:13.000 --> 01:14:24.000 My classes. I teach contemporary European history and world history, actually taking time out of my regular schedule classes to lay out a framework for understanding the conflict. 01:14:24.000 --> 01:14:32.000 Looking at 2 or 3 of the major interpretations of the crisis, and I think students appreciate that, and I noticed that they started to talk a little bit more about the crisis. 01:14:32.000 --> 01:14:38.000 Once they knew the context for the crisis. I think a lot of our students had no context for it. 01:14:38.000 --> 01:14:44.000 So I think anything that you can do to help shape that context and raise questions that are important. 01:14:44.000 --> 01:14:54.000 And then, you know, I just told them to look at the different perspectives, because really our students have had gone through a lot in the last 2 years, and there's a lot in their plate. 01:14:54.000 --> 01:15:02.000 We all have right, and this is just like around 15 of a 15 around fight, so far as I can tell, that we keep getting pummeled with bad news. 01:15:02.000 --> 01:15:13.000 So you know I I try to frame things for my students, and then I let them make their own decisions, would just pick up on what Chris was saying about context. 01:15:13.000 --> 01:15:22.000 And say, you know i'm obviously not a europeanist at all but I think that it's important to think about the context beyond just the immediate what's happening. 01:15:22.000 --> 01:15:28.000 Between Russia and ukraine. right now, and I want to use this to respond to the question that Oh, it just jumped up so I can't see the person. 01:15:28.000 --> 01:15:35.000 Oh, Caitlin asked. Has the United States ever done something similar to influence the elections of other countries? 01:15:35.000 --> 01:15:38.000 Will ask any Latin American that, and they would reframe. 01:15:38.000 --> 01:15:56.000 The question. Has there ever been an election in latin America where the United States has not been involved with promoting particular candidates, and using this information campaigns that I think I think that it's very hard within the United States to 01:15:56.000 --> 01:16:06.000 understand the expense and power that the United States wields in the world, and what that means for the third World, and what that has meant for the Third World for centuries. 01:16:06.000 --> 01:16:18.000 And in particular, since world war ii that that's also part of the context that we need to understand so much. You're almost out of time. 01:16:18.000 --> 01:16:24.000 But there's one last question I Don't know if we have time To what can we address Becky's question on the chat? 01:16:24.000 --> 01:16:32.000 Oh, I think Avatar did. but we Yes, if you want to add to that absolutely, and then we want to back his questions as well, Well, because question. 01:16:32.000 --> 01:16:39.000 I thought was a really good good question. Because, yeah, I mean, you know, from a moral standpoint that is the problem right? 01:16:39.000 --> 01:16:47.000 We, you know. Do you do get a prospective murderer to back down by giving them rewards in return for them? 01:16:47.000 --> 01:17:05.000 Not to can be dig a murder. Right is so. yeah, why should the Ukrainians give the Russians anything to get the Russians to stop doing something utterly wrong and and bad to them? right But as a spid point about the reality? 01:17:05.000 --> 01:17:11.000 Of the world is that great Powers get away with things that other States want to be able to get away with. 01:17:11.000 --> 01:17:16.000 As I have pointed out, this great power is a nuclear weapons processing great power. 01:17:16.000 --> 01:17:25.000 So we have no choice. We have to grit our teeth, and as much as we might hate it. 01:17:25.000 --> 01:17:29.000 Do what Chris pointed out, which is that you have to give. 01:17:29.000 --> 01:17:40.000 Put in an off wrap so some way for him to save face and take some sort of a win back home from this war as much as it may not be. 01:17:40.000 --> 01:17:55.000 You know more the correct thing to do to reward and aggressive any final thoughts or replies to the last couple questions that came in. 01:17:55.000 --> 01:18:07.000 I would just like to know where Elizabeth got that great map of the changing borders of Ukraine, which makes me doubt all the 23 and me genetic tests, because you have to ask what year was that genetic 01:18:07.000 --> 01:18:14.000 test. You might be a Mediterranean so I because I'm teaching nationalism and nationalism. 01:18:14.000 --> 01:18:20.000 Ethnic identity and genocide. This semester I took a class to pivot to Ukraine, and I. 01:18:20.000 --> 01:18:25.000 I go into class with maps, right? I I just think that maps are so interesting, and they explain so much. 01:18:25.000 --> 01:18:29.000 And so I got them there. But I can definitely send you the link I would love. 01:18:29.000 --> 01:18:33.000 I especially like the moving maps that show you sort of, you know. 01:18:33.000 --> 01:18:46.000 Have the borders of Europe, have moved because we're used immigrants. but a lot of the ethnic tension in Europe happens because not because people moved, but because borders move right right, Well, Thank you so much. 01:18:46.000 --> 01:18:52.000 Everyone. Thank you in particular to our presenters for their thoughts for thought, provoking remarks. 01:18:52.000 --> 01:19:03.000 And then, thanks to all of you who attended, there will be a recording available to watch afterwards.