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- Hello everybody.

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I'm Dr. John Hayes

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of the Geography and
Sustainability Department.

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And good morning to all of you.

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And thank you so much for coming today

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to our virtual presentation
on this wonderful Darwin Week

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at Salem State.

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The Geography and
Sustainability Department

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is honored to host the visit

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of Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

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to the 42nd Annual Darwin
Festival at Salem State.

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Professor Dupigny-Giroux
is a full professor

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in the Department of Geography
at the University of Vermont.

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She received her bachelor
of science degree

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in physical geography
and development studies

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from the University of Toronto in 1989,

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and her master of science degree

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in climatology and hydrology

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in 1992 from McGill University
in Montreal, Canada.

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And then her PhD in Climatology
also and GIS in 1996,

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also from the McGill
University's Geography Department

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in Montreal.

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The Geography and
Sustainability Department

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at Salem State has been
hosting an invited speaker

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at the Darwin Festival
since February, 2002.

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And we are very grateful
to the Biology Department

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and the Darwin Committee
for letting us be able

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to have this opportunity every year.

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And we're also pleased
that Dr Dupigny-Giroux

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is with us today to
continue this tradition.

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We also would like to thank
the Charles Albert Reed Trust

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for sponsoring our invited
speaker over the past 20 years.

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Professor Dupigny-Giroux
is an applied climatologist

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by training.

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Her research intersects a number of areas.

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It intersects climate,
hydrology and natural hazards.

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She also has interest in climate literacy.

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She also researches the
use of remote sensing

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and geographic information systems or GIS

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in the fields of spatial climatology,

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and also the intersection of climate

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and land surface processes
operating across the surface.

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She wears two hats, two very demand,

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her second very demanding job

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is she's the state
climatologist for Vermont.

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And so her work takes her
across the state of Vermont

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to assist colleagues in state agencies

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related to the DOT,
Department of Transportation,

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Emergency Management, State
Department of Agriculture,

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forestry and legislatures,
sorry, legislators

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to help plan for and
adapt to climate change.

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Her area of expertise,
especially, is floods,

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droughts, severe weather and the ways

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that these affect Vermont's
landscapes, society and peoples.

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She also works extensively with
K-12 teachers and students,

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trying to bring the spatial
science of physical geography

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and the use of satellites
and understanding climate

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to all levels of the K-12 curriculum.

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She teaches introductory
courses in physical geography

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and remote sensing, advanced
courses in climatology,

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GIS applications and satellite climatology

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and land surface processes.

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And her courses have a
service-based learning component

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because of her involvement
with the state climatologist.

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So again, we're absolutely thrilled

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to have Dr. Dupigny-Giroux with us today.

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She's gonna be speaking on highlights

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from the Northeast Chapter

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of the Fourth National Climate Assessment

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with a focus on implications
for natural hazards.

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And if anybody is having any
issues with closed captioning

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at the bottom of your screen,

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you can disable that at
the bottom of your screen

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if you would like.

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You can do what's called,

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you can hide the subtitles.

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So again, thank you and welcome everybody.

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Normally, we would be applauding

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Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

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for her presentation today.

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Thank you, everybody.

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- Thank you, Dr. Hayes
for that very gracious,

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and in-depth introduction.

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It's wonderful to be here and thank you

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for the invitation to to be part of this

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very special Darwin Festival.

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Can everybody see my slides?

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So as Dr. Hayes mentioned,

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I am gonna talk a little bit

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about some of the highlights

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of what we found in the Fourth
National Climate Assessment,

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which was released in November of 2018.

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And because I am a climatologist

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who does a lot of natural hazards,

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I was particularly
thrilled to be part of this

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and just to see some of the implications

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that we have for natural hazards

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and for understanding how this
impacts us as human beings.

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And so some of the things
that we'll talk a little bit

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about today are that relationship,

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that handshaking between the highlights

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of the Fourth National Climate Assessment

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or the NCA4 as it relates to us

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as human beings with a particular
eye to climate hazards.

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So to get us going a little bit here,

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the one thing that we can think about

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are how do we see hazards?

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How do we perceive hazards,

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(indistinct) of some of those things

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that we've seen in the recent past.

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And so if you think back a few years ago,

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we heard about parts of South Africa

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potentially running out of water.

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So that's one way that
we can look at hazards.

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We can also look at
wildfires in California.

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They were particularly
extensive last year, 2020.

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But if we think back
and look back in time,

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we will notice that they
have also been observed

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as far back as 2018 and then
before with a tremendous amount

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of air quality implications
and even infrastructure,

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so road infrastructure
implications as well.

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And then, the last thing
that we could look at

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is probably trying to
bring all of these together

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in one place.

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And if we were to try and do that,

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we can see the various other implications

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so drought, severe weather extremes,

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particularly in the winter
time, how drought affects things

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like agricultural patterns,

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the influence of particulate matter

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on different parts of our
ecosystems, for example,

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including our marine resources.

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And so what we're gonna
talk about today is NCA4.

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We'll step through the Northeast chapter

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which I was the lead author on.

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And then we'll take a look
at what does this mean

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for us as human beings, from
a geographic perspective

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and think in terms of
vulnerability issues,

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and then how does this all play out

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from looking at natural
hazards, in particular?

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So whenever I give a talk like this,

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I like to start off with
this NASA gas visualization

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which takes us from 19, sorry, 1880

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all the way up until 2020.

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And it shows us the change
from an average timeframe

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in five-year chunks, so that we can see

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how the earth has warmed.

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And we can see which
hemisphere has actually warmed

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at different rates.

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And then who has been
particularly affected.

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So let's just play this for a sec here.

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I'll let you see it once

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and I'll tell you what it
is we're looking at here.

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So it starts off in 1880

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and it steps through five-year chunks.

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And the blues tell you that you
are colder than the average.

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The oranges and the reds tell you

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that you're warmer than the average.

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And so we're in the '60s,

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we just moved to the '70s,

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popping into the '90s here

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and getting to the 2000s
and ending in 2020.

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And 2020 tied the year 2016

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for being the warmest year on record.

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So we're looking at that particular signal

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across the Northern
hemisphere in a large part

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because we've got most of our landmass

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in Northern hemisphere and we have land

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that surrounds a water surface

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which is in the Arctic region up in here.

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And so the warming that we see that drives

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a lot of that warmest on record

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is due to that land signal.

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But there's also a lot of
sea ice also being lost

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in Northern hemisphere as well.

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So we can put that into perspective

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in looking at that
change from the average.

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And by the way, the change from
the average is 1951 to 1980.

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That's the average period that
we will looking at in here.

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So something else I always do

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whenever we look at this is
we try to put this warming

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in the whole context of the
entire earth as a system.

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And so we can look at all of the things

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that we need to factor in so radiation,

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that's these short arrows in
here for short wave radiation

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and then the emitted part
back into the atmosphere.

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Those are those red arrows.

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We need to factor in looking
at moisture patterns,

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that hydrologic cycle and
how evaporation occurs,

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where the water falls is precipitation,

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how it's stored, how it's not stored.

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And then what does that mean for things

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like drought or floods and so forth?

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So climate is a system.

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Climate change is also a system

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because it's all interconnected.

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And so changes in the atmosphere

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then get presented or seen
in other types of changes

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like windfall, moisture
patterns, changes in humidity.

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And then we see those in changes

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in your soil moisture
content, and so forth.

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And so when we look at climate change,

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we need to make sure that we're putting

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all of those various components together

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so that we actually, (indistinct)

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what's actually changing in here.

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So one last way of
looking at climate change

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is this continuum from
the actual processes

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of how climate changes.

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So changes in the greenhouse gases,

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changes in land use patterns,

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changes in industrial processes.

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And then as a result of those,

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what are some of the impacts that we see

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in terms of ocean acidification

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or changes in sea level,
phenology changes,

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whether they are birds or different types

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of changes in your vegetation regimes.

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And then the last thing
that we can look at

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are some of the strategies

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for either mitigating climate change

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or for adapting climate change.

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So we've got process,
impact and then strategies

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that we can look at.

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So if we switch to NCA4,

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the Fourth National Climate Assessment,

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and just to put all of
this in the context,

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what I'll do is step us
through the rationale

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for the Fourth Climate Assessment.

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And then some of the things
that we thought about

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and created as part of
that Northeast chapter.

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So the first thing to know

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is that the National Climate Assessment

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is part of the US Global
Change Research Act of 1990

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which is congressionally mandated

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and it's supposed to occur
every four years or so.

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And so the specific language in that act

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talked about writing
it so that we look back

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at all of the research
that had been occurring

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since the last assessment,
and then use that to help

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with informing policies, but
not prescribing policies.

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So when you read the
National Climate Assessment,

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you won't see words like you must do this

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and you should do that,
which is prescriptive.

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What you will see instead
is over the last four years,

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we have learned more about such and such

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and that we've seen these impacts
in this particular sector.

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And so it's designed to
inform how we create policies

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or decision-making at various levels

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from the local level all the way up

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to the national level itself.

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And as we were doing that this time,

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there was a shift in the orientation

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of the way in which the
climate assessment was created.

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And we use what's called
a risk-based framing

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which is great, because it
comes out of hazards thinking.

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And so we ask questions
like who is at risk,

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what sector's at risk, who
are vulnerable populations?

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And then what are some of
those impacts that we've seen

260
00:14:07,890 --> 00:14:10,620
and how have we tried to
mitigate against them?

261
00:14:10,620 --> 00:14:12,940
How have we tried to adapt to them?

262
00:14:12,940 --> 00:14:14,820
And then this last point in here,

263
00:14:14,820 --> 00:14:18,240
which is a tipping point type of question,

264
00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:20,760
how bad can things get
and what would happen

265
00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:23,440
if we were to exceed that
particular threshold?

266
00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,410
So these are four, some of the questions

267
00:14:25,410 --> 00:14:29,210
that we use to think about
the entire assessment

268
00:14:29,210 --> 00:14:32,970
in its whole, and to help inform that,

269
00:14:32,970 --> 00:14:34,720
what we conducted were a series

270
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:39,720
of engagement workshops
across the entire US.

271
00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:41,880
And the one that we had for the Northeast

272
00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:43,100
was actually in Boston.

273
00:14:43,100 --> 00:14:46,150
And it was on a day like
today, it's snowing outside

274
00:14:46,150 --> 00:14:50,080
and we actually had to have folks call in

275
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,880
to be able to participate
and share their stories,

276
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,710
share the case studies, share the work

277
00:14:54,710 --> 00:14:56,600
that had been done from the town levels,

278
00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:58,810
all the way up through
to the entire region.

279
00:14:58,810 --> 00:15:02,880
And those are what we
used as part of the story

280
00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:06,750
in terms of creating
the Northeast chapter.

281
00:15:06,750 --> 00:15:09,340
So a couple of things were important

282
00:15:09,340 --> 00:15:12,390
to just highlight, as
we wrote the chapter,

283
00:15:12,390 --> 00:15:15,660
some of it had to do with the new way

284
00:15:15,660 --> 00:15:17,760
in which we looked at different regions.

285
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,760
So our Northeast region actually runs

286
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,840
from Northern Maine, all the
way through to West Virginia,

287
00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,070
across into Jersey.

288
00:15:26,070 --> 00:15:28,880
And then one of the things that we did

289
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,660
is to actually create what
I called climate summaries

290
00:15:32,660 --> 00:15:35,920
for each state across the entire US.

291
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,610
And so this is the climate
summary for Massachusetts.

292
00:15:39,610 --> 00:15:41,318
And if you take a look at it,

293
00:15:41,318 --> 00:15:43,360
just look for climate summaries,

294
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,890
take a look at it and
you will be able to see

295
00:15:46,890 --> 00:15:50,140
some of the pieces that were
observed for Massachusetts.

296
00:15:50,140 --> 00:15:52,020
What are some of the iconic things

297
00:15:52,020 --> 00:15:54,720
that are of critical
importance to the state,

298
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,390
for example, and what are some
of the temperature changes,

299
00:15:57,390 --> 00:16:01,820
precipitation changes and so
on that have been observed.

300
00:16:01,820 --> 00:16:05,640
A couple of other things
that were new for the NCA4

301
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:09,030
were the use of climate change indicators

302
00:16:09,030 --> 00:16:12,530
from the Environmental
Protection Agency, the EPA,

303
00:16:12,530 --> 00:16:15,540
and brand new downscaling products

304
00:16:15,540 --> 00:16:19,260
that were uniform across the entire US,

305
00:16:19,260 --> 00:16:23,110
so that you were able to
tap into a standardized

306
00:16:23,110 --> 00:16:26,000
or consistent way of
looking at methodologies.

307
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:30,171
And for the very first time,
we had economic studies

308
00:16:30,171 --> 00:16:34,310
to look at the impacts
on labor, for example,

309
00:16:34,310 --> 00:16:39,310
or the loss of potential
human power hours.

310
00:16:39,450 --> 00:16:41,880
So they asked us for each chapter

311
00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,870
to think about what was
unique to our region

312
00:16:44,870 --> 00:16:48,230
and then to use that to
create the chapter itself.

313
00:16:48,230 --> 00:16:49,690
So if you think about the Northeast,

314
00:16:49,690 --> 00:16:51,480
we'll come back to this map in a sec,

315
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,090
if we think about the Northeast,

316
00:16:53,090 --> 00:16:56,710
one of the things that is
particularly unique to us

317
00:16:56,710 --> 00:17:01,030
is this tremendous dichotomy

318
00:17:01,030 --> 00:17:05,050
between having some of the
largest cities in the US

319
00:17:05,050 --> 00:17:07,380
and having that megalopolis
that runs from Boston

320
00:17:07,380 --> 00:17:09,240
all the way down through New York

321
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:13,610
and down into the DC region
here along I-95 corridor.

322
00:17:13,610 --> 00:17:15,320
And then juxtapose with that,

323
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:17,950
we have a tremendous amount of rural area.

324
00:17:17,950 --> 00:17:21,640
So we have that rural-urban
interface that we looked at.

325
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,970
We also have a lot of our region

326
00:17:24,970 --> 00:17:27,260
being coastal with marine resources

327
00:17:27,260 --> 00:17:29,050
that we needed to keep in mind

328
00:17:29,050 --> 00:17:32,040
versus the inland regions
which are our mountainous

329
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,200
and how that plays out
from a weather climate

330
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:35,750
and climate change perspective.

331
00:17:37,420 --> 00:17:41,960
In terms of peoples, we
have a cultural heritage

332
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,070
that includes indigenous peoples.

333
00:17:44,070 --> 00:17:47,470
It includes settlements that date back

334
00:17:47,470 --> 00:17:50,840
to the 1600s and the 1700s.

335
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,810
And so the cultural heritage of the region

336
00:17:53,810 --> 00:17:56,400
is a little bit unique
and special compared

337
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,580
to other parts of the US.

338
00:17:58,580 --> 00:18:01,820
And then our physical geography
is critically important

339
00:18:01,820 --> 00:18:04,260
because it sets up
different types of dynamics,

340
00:18:04,260 --> 00:18:08,850
different types of both physical
and human vulnerabilities.

341
00:18:08,850 --> 00:18:10,850
So here are some of those economic studies

342
00:18:10,850 --> 00:18:12,500
that were brand new and it allows

343
00:18:12,500 --> 00:18:14,580
us to bring that human element

344
00:18:14,580 --> 00:18:17,710
in terms of either the number of hours

345
00:18:17,710 --> 00:18:20,920
that are lost due to
changes in temperatures

346
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,890
or inhospitable type of work conditions

347
00:18:24,890 --> 00:18:26,970
but also changes in air quality

348
00:18:26,970 --> 00:18:30,050
and what does that mean for us as humans?

349
00:18:30,050 --> 00:18:33,180
So in putting all of these together,

350
00:18:33,180 --> 00:18:38,180
let's take a look at what we
created for those chapters.

351
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,360
So all of the chapters went through

352
00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:44,170
that entire process
that I just talked about

353
00:18:44,170 --> 00:18:48,720
and what the USGCRP main office in DC did

354
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,120
is they pulled out all of the elements

355
00:18:52,120 --> 00:18:53,680
of each particular region.

356
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,260
So for the Northeast
here, most of our impacts

357
00:18:56,260 --> 00:18:59,260
are in water, energy,
transportation, infrastructure

358
00:18:59,260 --> 00:19:02,310
and some of the hazards that
we are particularly prone to

359
00:19:02,310 --> 00:19:04,130
are different types of storms,

360
00:19:04,130 --> 00:19:07,390
droughts, heat waves,
flooding, sea level rise

361
00:19:07,390 --> 00:19:10,200
and so forth and I know
you cannot read the slide

362
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,080
because it is very tiny,

363
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:17,080
but it's one of those main
takeaway chapter highlights

364
00:19:18,370 --> 00:19:20,790
that we have in the introductory section

365
00:19:20,790 --> 00:19:23,330
of the assessment itself, very nice way

366
00:19:23,330 --> 00:19:25,160
of pulling all of this together.

367
00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:29,660
So the 10 regions, so 10 regional chapters

368
00:19:29,660 --> 00:19:30,920
and what I did is I went through

369
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,570
and I looked at all the major highlights

370
00:19:33,570 --> 00:19:36,810
of these 10 regions to see
if there were any threads

371
00:19:36,810 --> 00:19:40,965
through the tapestry of what
the overarching themes were.

372
00:19:40,965 --> 00:19:43,150
Most of the chapters all talked

373
00:19:43,150 --> 00:19:46,010
about having to pay
attention to ecosystems

374
00:19:46,010 --> 00:19:49,690
and ecosystem services, the importance

375
00:19:49,690 --> 00:19:53,540
of indigenous peoples and
human health challenges

376
00:19:53,540 --> 00:19:58,030
in our regions, looking at
adaptation to climate change

377
00:19:58,030 --> 00:20:00,560
and how our adaptive capacity

378
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,580
could or could not be affected,

379
00:20:02,580 --> 00:20:06,510
the ways in which climate change
influences our productivity

380
00:20:06,510 --> 00:20:08,830
in the agricultural sectors.

381
00:20:08,830 --> 00:20:12,260
And then the imposition on infrastructure,

382
00:20:12,260 --> 00:20:14,790
both built infrastructure
as well as transportation.

383
00:20:14,790 --> 00:20:17,380
And then for those who
are along the coast,

384
00:20:17,380 --> 00:20:18,840
looking at the marine resources,

385
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:22,800
coastal resources and sea level rise.

386
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,850
So for the Northeast chapter,
we had five key messages

387
00:20:26,850 --> 00:20:31,800
and each one encapsulates the big change

388
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,640
or the big piece in its bullet point

389
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,100
and then pieces from there.

390
00:20:37,100 --> 00:20:40,050
So the first one talked
about the influence

391
00:20:40,050 --> 00:20:44,640
of changing seasons on
our rural landscapes,

392
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,740
rural ecosystems and
our rural environments

393
00:20:47,740 --> 00:20:50,210
and the economies and livelihoods
that are based on that.

394
00:20:50,210 --> 00:20:53,960
And so we're looking at ways
in which milder winters,

395
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,820
earlier spring conditions,
changes in snowfall regimes

396
00:20:56,820 --> 00:21:00,720
affect things like tourism
and farming, forestry,

397
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:05,720
and the depth snowpack,
changes to our forest

398
00:21:06,010 --> 00:21:07,960
and stream flows and so forth.

399
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,500
And so, again, just looking at why we had

400
00:21:11,500 --> 00:21:16,500
our rural piece in here, it
has to do with the large extent

401
00:21:16,540 --> 00:21:21,530
of our rural conditions across
our region in particular.

402
00:21:21,530 --> 00:21:26,530
So knowing that agriculture
is one of the key pieces

403
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,620
for us as a Northeast region,

404
00:21:29,890 --> 00:21:32,520
how do we look at what those changes mean

405
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,730
from an agricultural
productivity perspective?

406
00:21:34,730 --> 00:21:36,880
And one way to do that is to look

407
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,220
at the length of the growing season.

408
00:21:39,220 --> 00:21:43,830
And what you're seeing here
is, on the left-hand side,

409
00:21:43,830 --> 00:21:47,850
the last date of freeze occurring

410
00:21:47,850 --> 00:21:51,180
in the springtime conditions
and on the right hand side,

411
00:21:51,180 --> 00:21:53,900
what you're seeing is the first date

412
00:21:53,900 --> 00:21:56,110
of a freeze in the fall.

413
00:21:56,110 --> 00:22:00,620
So in between, gives you an
idea of your growing season.

414
00:22:00,620 --> 00:22:03,120
And the way that the color scheme shows,

415
00:22:03,120 --> 00:22:07,470
the number of changes in
the days that you have

416
00:22:07,470 --> 00:22:12,250
that time of your freeze,
springtime and fall,

417
00:22:12,250 --> 00:22:14,710
so that the yellows show you anywhere

418
00:22:14,710 --> 00:22:19,070
between, let's say,
six and 14 days change.

419
00:22:19,070 --> 00:22:20,670
And then the reds show you

420
00:22:20,670 --> 00:22:23,570
anywhere between 26 and 30 degrees.

421
00:22:23,570 --> 00:22:26,210
And then the last thing that
you're looking at in here

422
00:22:26,210 --> 00:22:30,570
is different scenarios
that this was run for.

423
00:22:30,570 --> 00:22:31,403
And you may have heard

424
00:22:31,403 --> 00:22:35,650
about these representative
concentration pathways, RCPs.

425
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:42,280
4.5 is a really aggressive
RCP or scenario.

426
00:22:43,250 --> 00:22:46,370
8.5 is more like business as usual.

427
00:22:46,370 --> 00:22:49,190
And each one of these is
for different timeframes.

428
00:22:49,190 --> 00:22:54,190
So these first two panels are
for the middle of the century

429
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,300
under the more aggressive scenario,

430
00:22:58,300 --> 00:23:00,960
4.5, and then the business as usual,

431
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,440
8.5, so you'll see there's a bigger change

432
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,120
in a number of days under
the business as usual.

433
00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:09,400
And then this last panel on here

434
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:13,410
is business as usual but
for later on in the century.

435
00:23:13,410 --> 00:23:15,439
So you see a tremendous amount of change

436
00:23:15,439 --> 00:23:17,700
in that last panel in there.

437
00:23:18,930 --> 00:23:21,090
So if we switch from agriculture

438
00:23:21,090 --> 00:23:24,330
and we look at stream flow conditions,

439
00:23:24,330 --> 00:23:26,730
this is some work from
one of our coauthors

440
00:23:26,730 --> 00:23:29,680
on the Northeast chapter in looking

441
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,910
at the timing of these
stream flow conditions.

442
00:23:32,910 --> 00:23:35,250
So the way that you're reading this

443
00:23:35,250 --> 00:23:39,570
is stream flow timing gets earlier

444
00:23:40,410 --> 00:23:45,410
and that is denoted by
triangles that point downwards.

445
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,610
And the more red those triangles,

446
00:23:48,610 --> 00:23:53,080
the earlier in time you see
those stream flow patterns

447
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:53,913
are occurring.

448
00:23:53,913 --> 00:23:55,730
And so you see a lot of reds across Maine

449
00:23:55,730 --> 00:23:57,360
and the Northern part of our region

450
00:23:57,360 --> 00:24:00,270
all the way down through
the spine of the greens

451
00:24:00,270 --> 00:24:03,630
and into the Appalachians across in here.

452
00:24:03,630 --> 00:24:07,200
And if I blow this up,
one other way of slicing

453
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,900
and dicing it, this is, again,

454
00:24:09,900 --> 00:24:12,320
the same work from Hodgkins and Dudley,

455
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,880
on the left-hand side, you
see changes in precipitation

456
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,050
and on right-hand side,

457
00:24:18,050 --> 00:24:20,470
you see those changes in storm flow.

458
00:24:20,470 --> 00:24:23,950
So this is, again,
feeding into that timing

459
00:24:23,950 --> 00:24:25,480
of your stream flow patterns.

460
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,360
And so you see again, the triangles,

461
00:24:28,360 --> 00:24:29,650
but this time they're pointing up,

462
00:24:29,650 --> 00:24:32,390
which means you're getting
increase in precipitation

463
00:24:32,390 --> 00:24:35,590
and also increases in our storm flow.

464
00:24:37,010 --> 00:24:38,800
So the second key message

465
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:40,870
was keeping with the physical environments

466
00:24:40,870 --> 00:24:43,270
and those changes in
your physical environment

467
00:24:43,270 --> 00:24:45,220
and looking at some of the changes

468
00:24:45,220 --> 00:24:47,650
that we see in our coastal regions,

469
00:24:47,650 --> 00:24:51,610
so both on the coast
itself, but also offshore.

470
00:24:51,610 --> 00:24:53,180
And one of the reasons why we're looking

471
00:24:53,180 --> 00:24:54,650
at both offshore conditions

472
00:24:54,650 --> 00:24:57,020
is sea level rise has been occurring.

473
00:24:57,020 --> 00:25:01,330
It's occurring in one of the
fastest rates in the country.

474
00:25:01,330 --> 00:25:02,830
Some of the warming that we're seeing

475
00:25:02,830 --> 00:25:05,170
off the Northeast is
also occurring at rates

476
00:25:05,170 --> 00:25:08,650
that are some of the fastest
in the country itself.

477
00:25:08,650 --> 00:25:11,440
And so when we think about sea level rise,

478
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,360
we think about our coastal
regime in particular,

479
00:25:14,360 --> 00:25:17,210
what does that mean,
not just for ecosystems,

480
00:25:17,210 --> 00:25:19,810
but also for our built landscape?

481
00:25:19,810 --> 00:25:23,150
So we can think about some of the impacts

482
00:25:23,150 --> 00:25:24,600
of Hurricane Sandy, for example,

483
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,280
and what those meant for having

484
00:25:28,350 --> 00:25:31,130
some of the flood, the subways in New York

485
00:25:31,130 --> 00:25:32,280
actually being flooded.

486
00:25:33,220 --> 00:25:36,330
So speaking of New York, that took us

487
00:25:36,330 --> 00:25:39,540
to our third key message,
which is our urban areas.

488
00:25:39,540 --> 00:25:41,170
And again, this juxtaposition,

489
00:25:41,170 --> 00:25:45,190
this interplay between
rural areas and urban areas

490
00:25:45,190 --> 00:25:47,070
and the interconnectedness of them

491
00:25:47,070 --> 00:25:48,400
but also some of the features

492
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,220
that are particularly
unique to our urban areas.

493
00:25:51,220 --> 00:25:54,540
And so a number of critical
infrastructure pieces in there

494
00:25:54,540 --> 00:25:57,440
and a number of
transportation pieces in there

495
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,640
but also knowing that we
have some particularly

496
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,020
key historic sites in our urban regions

497
00:26:04,020 --> 00:26:06,370
that we need to pay a
little bit of attention to.

498
00:26:06,370 --> 00:26:09,600
So sea level rise, flooding is used,

499
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,780
flooding challenges and
looking at how that plays out

500
00:26:12,780 --> 00:26:16,690
in some critically
important coastal cities.

501
00:26:16,690 --> 00:26:21,550
So we've got some flooding in
Annapolis highlighted in here.

502
00:26:21,550 --> 00:26:26,250
And then if we think about
some of the strategies

503
00:26:26,250 --> 00:26:28,660
that have been implemented as a result

504
00:26:28,660 --> 00:26:31,650
of some of these extreme
storms that we've had,

505
00:26:31,650 --> 00:26:36,250
this is a shot from downtown
Manhattan in New York City,

506
00:26:36,250 --> 00:26:38,920
where in response to Sandy,

507
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,990
when we did some mitigative and
adaptive type of strategies,

508
00:26:42,990 --> 00:26:47,670
these are some of the subway coverings.

509
00:26:47,670 --> 00:26:50,040
So instead of having that
flush with the ground,

510
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,400
like they usually are, they're elevated

511
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,814
so there's that mitigated barrier

512
00:26:55,814 --> 00:26:59,690
for the floodwaters not entering
directly into the subway

513
00:26:59,690 --> 00:27:02,100
and these grates are also now multi-use.

514
00:27:02,100 --> 00:27:07,000
So pedestrians and also for bike use.

515
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,000
So it's a multi-approach

516
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:13,210
to actually mitigating
against extreme storms.

517
00:27:13,210 --> 00:27:15,460
So the fourth key message,

518
00:27:15,460 --> 00:27:18,400
turn our eye to peoples
and, in particular,

519
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,820
to the threats to human health.

520
00:27:20,820 --> 00:27:24,980
And as the region warms,
as we have changes

521
00:27:24,980 --> 00:27:28,900
in our moisture conditions,
both offshore and onshore

522
00:27:28,900 --> 00:27:30,840
what are some of the
ways in which we can look

523
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,600
at things like vector-borne diseases,

524
00:27:34,730 --> 00:27:38,150
ticks, Lyme disease and so forth.

525
00:27:38,150 --> 00:27:41,170
And ways in which changes in temperature,

526
00:27:41,170 --> 00:27:44,030
change in air quality and water quality

527
00:27:44,030 --> 00:27:46,810
are important for us as human beings.

528
00:27:46,810 --> 00:27:50,340
So one of our colleagues
from Brown University

529
00:27:50,340 --> 00:27:55,317
was able to do some of this
work and use visits to hospitals

530
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,120
and emergency rooms, in particular,

531
00:27:59,120 --> 00:28:02,010
as a way of having this as a proxy

532
00:28:02,010 --> 00:28:06,600
for looking at the way in which
we can look at implications

533
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,710
of changing temperatures
for the region itself.

534
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:12,840
So the last key message
talked a little bit

535
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:17,310
about what are some of the highlights,

536
00:28:17,310 --> 00:28:20,730
if you will, across the region
that have already occurred,

537
00:28:20,730 --> 00:28:24,538
in terms of adaptation,
adaptation types of strategies.

538
00:28:24,538 --> 00:28:27,020
We included things like Reggie

539
00:28:27,020 --> 00:28:30,670
and some of the other really
great work that has been done

540
00:28:30,670 --> 00:28:33,680
in both towns, as well as
from a regional perspective

541
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:38,300
and highlighted that in the
fifth and last key message.

542
00:28:38,300 --> 00:28:41,340
So all of this work was
done by an author team

543
00:28:41,340 --> 00:28:45,510
which included both university affiliates

544
00:28:45,510 --> 00:28:50,510
as well as federal affiliates,
affiliates of tribal nations.

545
00:28:51,450 --> 00:28:54,430
And so we were able to bring
all of these pieces together.

546
00:28:54,430 --> 00:28:56,460
So this is our author team,

547
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,030
and we also were particularly grateful

548
00:29:00,030 --> 00:29:03,250
to having technical contributions

549
00:29:03,250 --> 00:29:06,240
from a number of folks
who either helped out

550
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:10,280
with our mapping and also
with the actual case study

551
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,380
deep dive that we needed to have in place.

552
00:29:13,510 --> 00:29:15,460
So if you'd like to read some more

553
00:29:15,460 --> 00:29:18,710
about the Northeast chapter,
here's the citation.

554
00:29:18,710 --> 00:29:21,640
The full citations here and you can access

555
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,700
the entire chapter as well
as all of the other chapters

556
00:29:24,700 --> 00:29:28,450
in the NCA4 at this particular site.

557
00:29:30,530 --> 00:29:35,343
All right, so let's use
some of those things

558
00:29:36,420 --> 00:29:39,692
that we've observed and
bring this into the realm

559
00:29:39,692 --> 00:29:43,280
of natural hazards in particular.

560
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:47,090
So one way of doing that is to focus

561
00:29:47,090 --> 00:29:48,690
on looking at extreme events,

562
00:29:48,690 --> 00:29:51,600
because those are of
particular importance to us,

563
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,200
both as human beings as
well as our various sectors.

564
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,720
And we can do this from both
a temperature perspective,

565
00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,790
which is what you see on the top here

566
00:29:59,790 --> 00:30:01,960
as well as a precipitation on perspective,

567
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,250
which is the one on the bottom.

568
00:30:04,250 --> 00:30:08,372
And so as climate changes, we observe that

569
00:30:08,372 --> 00:30:10,640
in looking at distributions.

570
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,240
And so as a distribution
shifts off to the right,

571
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,220
in other words as the temperature changes,

572
00:30:17,220 --> 00:30:20,450
that change is not just
the average conditions

573
00:30:20,450 --> 00:30:22,530
which is what we're looking at here

574
00:30:22,530 --> 00:30:24,440
but it also changes the extremes.

575
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,550
And so we're looking at probability

576
00:30:27,550 --> 00:30:31,270
of having more hot weather
in here at this upper tail

577
00:30:31,270 --> 00:30:34,090
and the probability of
having less cold weather,

578
00:30:34,090 --> 00:30:36,020
which is this lower tail.

579
00:30:36,020 --> 00:30:38,430
And from a precipitation perspective,

580
00:30:38,430 --> 00:30:43,430
the shift is from the lighter line in here

581
00:30:43,690 --> 00:30:45,080
to the darker line.

582
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,870
So that changes in precipitation play out

583
00:30:48,870 --> 00:30:53,050
as seeing fewer events
that produce low amounts

584
00:30:53,050 --> 00:30:55,730
of precipitation and more events

585
00:30:55,730 --> 00:30:58,020
of having higher precipitation.

586
00:30:58,020 --> 00:31:00,350
And so another way of looking at that

587
00:31:00,350 --> 00:31:02,780
is that shift that we're seeing.

588
00:31:02,780 --> 00:31:05,920
And that then translates into looking

589
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,960
at either drought conditions

590
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,140
so there are fewer moisture,

591
00:31:12,010 --> 00:31:15,860
events that produce a lot of precipitation

592
00:31:15,860 --> 00:31:19,480
in those types of conditions
or if you have excess,

593
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,100
what that plays out is for
having things like mudslides.

594
00:31:23,100 --> 00:31:25,450
And then when you bring
all of this together,

595
00:31:25,450 --> 00:31:28,220
we can look to see places
that are particularly prone

596
00:31:28,220 --> 00:31:31,426
for having droughts or our
colleagues out in the west.

597
00:31:31,426 --> 00:31:34,920
This exacerbates things like wildfires.

598
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:36,890
And then there's that
sort of feedback loop,

599
00:31:36,890 --> 00:31:38,820
how does that play out for us?

600
00:31:38,820 --> 00:31:41,390
And when you have changes in your oceans

601
00:31:41,390 --> 00:31:43,510
and changes in sea surface temperatures,

602
00:31:43,510 --> 00:31:44,470
changes in the atmosphere,

603
00:31:44,470 --> 00:31:46,420
you're gonna see also that played out

604
00:31:46,420 --> 00:31:51,420
in the dynamics of the intensity
of our tropical cyclones.

605
00:31:52,460 --> 00:31:56,320
So even back as far as 2010,

606
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,770
climate.gov, which is a great resource

607
00:31:58,770 --> 00:32:02,610
in looking at not just maps and rainfall,

608
00:32:02,610 --> 00:32:06,530
but also teaching
resources, even back then,

609
00:32:06,530 --> 00:32:08,250
there was this question that was answered,

610
00:32:08,250 --> 00:32:11,810
how can you have warming
but record snow storms?

611
00:32:11,810 --> 00:32:13,820
And we know we've had a
number of records snowstorms.

612
00:32:13,820 --> 00:32:16,970
And so we're looking at
the way in which changes

613
00:32:16,970 --> 00:32:20,560
in the temperature of the
atmosphere changes the amount

614
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,380
of moisture in the atmosphere

615
00:32:22,380 --> 00:32:25,000
and where does that go in the summertime,

616
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,450
in terms of heavy rainfall
in the winter time,

617
00:32:27,450 --> 00:32:32,240
in terms of extreme snowstorms
and blizzards and so forth.

618
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,060
And so it's possible to
have both of these in here.

619
00:32:35,060 --> 00:32:38,070
So highly recommend climate.gov

620
00:32:38,070 --> 00:32:41,980
as a great resource for doing
a deep dive into some of this.

621
00:32:43,050 --> 00:32:44,570
And the other piece, in all of this,

622
00:32:44,570 --> 00:32:46,260
we mentioned hurricanes.

623
00:32:46,260 --> 00:32:48,160
So why are we focusing on hurricanes?

624
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,520
And why is this a new piece

625
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,250
in this whole climate change realm?

626
00:32:52,250 --> 00:32:54,900
We know that the Northeast
has experienced hurricanes

627
00:32:54,900 --> 00:32:58,960
in the past and in the recent
few months and so forth.

628
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,120
So we're gonna look at that
in a sec but why hurricanes?

629
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:06,540
Part of it is because as the
climate continues to change,

630
00:33:06,540 --> 00:33:09,920
we're noticing that
hurricanes are slowing down

631
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,340
and Hurricane Dorian from
a couple of years ago

632
00:33:12,340 --> 00:33:13,860
was actually moving so slow

633
00:33:13,860 --> 00:33:17,280
you could walk faster
than Dorian was moving.

634
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:18,680
And so why is that a problem?

635
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:22,130
It's a problem because as
a hurricane slows down,

636
00:33:22,130 --> 00:33:25,640
the amount of precipitation
that falls in a single place

637
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,530
is gonna be higher than if that hurricane

638
00:33:28,530 --> 00:33:30,450
was a faster mover.

639
00:33:30,450 --> 00:33:32,930
And so the speed with
which the hurricane moves,

640
00:33:32,930 --> 00:33:35,330
in addition to how much
moisture it has in it,

641
00:33:35,330 --> 00:33:37,000
critically important in here.

642
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,880
So let's do a little quick
detour into hurricanes.

643
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,980
So David Vallee, who is at
the River Forecast Center

644
00:33:44,980 --> 00:33:48,570
in Taunton, Mass actually put together

645
00:33:48,570 --> 00:33:50,610
some of these slides here.

646
00:33:50,610 --> 00:33:54,320
And what you're looking at
is all of the hurricanes

647
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,200
that have passed by
Providence, Rhode Island

648
00:33:59,180 --> 00:34:02,060
as far back as we can get
in the hurricane database.

649
00:34:02,060 --> 00:34:05,090
And so you're looking
at hurricanes from 1850,

650
00:34:05,090 --> 00:34:07,060
all the way up until 2015.

651
00:34:07,060 --> 00:34:10,975
So there's tremendous amount
of hurricanes moving through

652
00:34:10,975 --> 00:34:15,975
and making either landfall or grazing

653
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,080
the Eastern seaboard across in here.

654
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,180
So you've got a number of those listed

655
00:34:20,180 --> 00:34:22,340
for you along the right in here.

656
00:34:22,340 --> 00:34:27,340
So this is all of them,
like I said, 1850 to 2015.

657
00:34:27,740 --> 00:34:29,340
If I slice and dice this,

658
00:34:29,340 --> 00:34:33,920
or if David sliced and diced
this from a 50-year timeframe,

659
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:38,690
one of the things you'll
notice is this is 1900 to 1950.

660
00:34:38,690 --> 00:34:42,370
So lots of these tropical
systems moving up

661
00:34:42,370 --> 00:34:45,310
through typical pattern here,

662
00:34:45,310 --> 00:34:48,740
which starts off in the Eastern Atlantic,

663
00:34:48,740 --> 00:34:51,270
does a little jog and strikes us here,

664
00:34:51,270 --> 00:34:55,080
so that's the first part
of the last century.

665
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,970
And this is the second
half of the last century.

666
00:34:57,970 --> 00:35:01,180
So we've got 1951 to 1999.

667
00:35:01,180 --> 00:35:03,280
And you notice there's a
little bit of a difference

668
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,910
in terms of where these are moving.

669
00:35:05,910 --> 00:35:10,150
And then the last piece is 2000 and 2015.

670
00:35:10,150 --> 00:35:14,250
And what you'll see in
here is that the direction,

671
00:35:14,250 --> 00:35:16,730
the track is a little bit different.

672
00:35:16,730 --> 00:35:18,320
And why is this important?

673
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:22,850
Well, it's important because
knowing where hurricanes

674
00:35:22,850 --> 00:35:26,970
and tropical systems move is
important for us to think about

675
00:35:26,970 --> 00:35:30,200
and to always keep out on forefront

676
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:34,030
because our cognitive sciences

677
00:35:34,030 --> 00:35:38,510
and our hazards sciences have told us

678
00:35:38,510 --> 00:35:41,160
that it's easier to talk about things

679
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,720
that are part of a lived experience.

680
00:35:43,720 --> 00:35:46,870
And so if you've never
experienced one of these systems,

681
00:35:46,870 --> 00:35:50,050
the vulnerability to the
awareness of it might be different

682
00:35:50,050 --> 00:35:52,940
than if you lived through
one, two, three, four

683
00:35:52,940 --> 00:35:56,080
or multiple of these events in question.

684
00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:01,810
So using all of those,
all that information

685
00:36:01,810 --> 00:36:06,080
about those hurricanes,
using all of the information

686
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,290
about the fact that extreme
events are changing,

687
00:36:09,290 --> 00:36:14,050
what NOAA was able to
do is to actually update

688
00:36:14,050 --> 00:36:16,420
all of that extreme precipitation

689
00:36:16,420 --> 00:36:21,300
in something called the NOAA Atlas 14.

690
00:36:21,300 --> 00:36:25,700
So NOAA Atlas 14 allows
us to actually incorporate

691
00:36:25,700 --> 00:36:28,668
all of these changes in extreme events.

692
00:36:28,668 --> 00:36:30,810
And this is important

693
00:36:30,810 --> 00:36:35,580
because what we're seeing is that shift

694
00:36:35,580 --> 00:36:40,580
from the older information
from the 1950s and '60s

695
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,930
to bringing in the newer information

696
00:36:43,930 --> 00:36:47,880
in a way that allows for
local emergency management,

697
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,320
local transportation, departments,

698
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,980
to actually have cutting edge
geographic information science

699
00:36:53,980 --> 00:36:58,470
or GIS based information that
allows them to do planning

700
00:36:58,470 --> 00:37:01,820
for all of these hazards on
a more local (indistinct).

701
00:37:01,820 --> 00:37:06,400
So the yellow lines in here
are contours that were drawn

702
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,430
by hand back in the
'50s, back in the '60s.

703
00:37:09,430 --> 00:37:12,710
And then the shaded
maps that you're seeing

704
00:37:12,710 --> 00:37:16,190
are the new pieces that emergency managers

705
00:37:16,190 --> 00:37:18,550
and transportation engineers now have

706
00:37:18,550 --> 00:37:19,960
and so there's this tremendous amount

707
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:24,190
of high quality, high spatial
variability information

708
00:37:24,190 --> 00:37:28,940
that we can use for planning
for natural hazards.

709
00:37:28,940 --> 00:37:30,990
So why would we need this?

710
00:37:30,990 --> 00:37:32,720
Well, part of the answer to that question

711
00:37:32,720 --> 00:37:36,330
of why would we need to improve our data

712
00:37:36,330 --> 00:37:37,970
that we're using for natural hazards

713
00:37:37,970 --> 00:37:40,760
is because we're seeing increases

714
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:45,730
in their occurrence,
increases in their realization

715
00:37:45,730 --> 00:37:48,210
as a disaster over time.

716
00:37:48,210 --> 00:37:50,970
And so you may be surprised

717
00:37:50,970 --> 00:37:52,450
that most of the natural hazards

718
00:37:52,450 --> 00:37:54,060
are actually meteorological hazards.

719
00:37:54,060 --> 00:37:56,650
So that's what these green ones are

720
00:37:56,650 --> 00:37:58,949
and then, to your physical hazards,

721
00:37:58,949 --> 00:38:02,230
which are things like
earthquakes and tsunamis

722
00:38:02,230 --> 00:38:06,520
and volcanic activities occupy
a smaller percent in here.

723
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,390
And then climatological hazards

724
00:38:08,390 --> 00:38:12,010
like droughts and wildfires
and extreme temperatures,

725
00:38:12,010 --> 00:38:14,990
we've also seen those
increasing over time.

726
00:38:16,170 --> 00:38:21,170
So this was just updated to
reflect the 2020 values in here.

727
00:38:22,780 --> 00:38:26,940
So here's 2020, 2020
set an absolute record

728
00:38:26,940 --> 00:38:29,660
in terms of billion dollar disasters.

729
00:38:29,660 --> 00:38:32,120
They've been keeping those records

730
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,510
of when a billion dollar disaster occurred

731
00:38:34,510 --> 00:38:38,640
across the entire US since 1980.

732
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,320
And so if we look at
this, we've been noticing

733
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,550
that they have been increasing over time.

734
00:38:43,550 --> 00:38:45,120
Some years are larger than others.

735
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:49,480
So 2011 was when we had Irene.

736
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:53,610
2012 was Sandy and then 2020

737
00:38:53,610 --> 00:38:55,270
just blew everything out of the water.

738
00:38:55,270 --> 00:38:59,030
And so what was the
underlying factor for that?

739
00:38:59,030 --> 00:39:03,080
Well, part of it was because
we had a tremendous amount

740
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:07,090
of a tremendous number of
these tropical cyclones

741
00:39:07,090 --> 00:39:09,560
and hurricanes making landfall

742
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:13,470
across especially the Gulf
regions, but also Florida

743
00:39:13,470 --> 00:39:15,480
and in the Carolinas in 2020,

744
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,050
some places literally
experienced five of these

745
00:39:19,050 --> 00:39:21,690
over the course of the
entire hurricane season.

746
00:39:21,690 --> 00:39:24,120
So that's one part of the answer to that.

747
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:25,630
And this season was so long.

748
00:39:25,630 --> 00:39:29,570
Remember we finished the
regular alphanumeric alphabet

749
00:39:29,570 --> 00:39:31,600
and went into the Greek alphabet

750
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,000
because there was so many systems.

751
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:35,560
And part of that is, is of course

752
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,840
because we are still in the
middle of a la nina event,

753
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:40,540
which is very conducive to having

754
00:39:40,540 --> 00:39:44,842
a lot of these systems move
over the continental US

755
00:39:44,842 --> 00:39:48,310
and the Caribbean Sea and so forth.

756
00:39:48,310 --> 00:39:50,530
Wildfires, also critically important,

757
00:39:50,530 --> 00:39:53,940
a lot of severe weather
taking place as well.

758
00:39:55,140 --> 00:39:57,230
So when we think about it,

759
00:39:57,230 --> 00:40:00,100
what we need to now bring into play

760
00:40:00,100 --> 00:40:01,720
are us as human beings

761
00:40:01,720 --> 00:40:04,520
and who our vulnerable populations are.

762
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:08,240
When we think about understanding hazards,

763
00:40:08,240 --> 00:40:12,380
when we think about trying
to mitigate against hazards,

764
00:40:12,380 --> 00:40:16,400
we need to keep in mind
all of our peoples.

765
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:21,400
And so the ways in which
peoples are vulnerable

766
00:40:21,858 --> 00:40:26,190
and how those may either
increase their vulnerability

767
00:40:26,190 --> 00:40:27,720
to particular hazard or not.

768
00:40:27,720 --> 00:40:29,720
And so some of the things to keep in mind

769
00:40:29,720 --> 00:40:34,720
from a geographic perspective
are historical legacies,

770
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:39,950
race and ethnicity,
languages, health status,

771
00:40:39,950 --> 00:40:44,560
socioeconomic status, immigration status,

772
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,882
whether we have a strong
social network or not,

773
00:40:47,882 --> 00:40:51,670
or gender and identity, other factors,

774
00:40:51,670 --> 00:40:54,530
mobility challenges, all of these things

775
00:40:54,530 --> 00:40:59,530
can help to increase our
vulnerability as human beings.

776
00:40:59,580 --> 00:41:01,750
And so why is this important?

777
00:41:01,750 --> 00:41:06,490
Well, if we are experiencing
more of these extreme events,

778
00:41:06,490 --> 00:41:08,870
if they're becoming more frequent

779
00:41:08,870 --> 00:41:11,900
and we overlay them with
all of those factors

780
00:41:11,900 --> 00:41:15,840
that we just introduced
in here, it then sets up

781
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,860
this dynamic for how do you try

782
00:41:18,860 --> 00:41:22,100
to make sure that all of our populations,

783
00:41:22,100 --> 00:41:25,420
all of our peoples are being taken care of

784
00:41:25,420 --> 00:41:27,430
in the face of these extreme events.

785
00:41:27,430 --> 00:41:30,840
And so whether, sea level rise,

786
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,080
whether we're talking
about coastal flooding,

787
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,670
whether we're talking
about inland flooding,

788
00:41:35,670 --> 00:41:38,859
along things like subways, for example,

789
00:41:38,859 --> 00:41:41,640
how these extreme temperatures

790
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:45,030
then cause things like buckling of roads

791
00:41:45,030 --> 00:41:47,820
or when we have something like Irene

792
00:41:47,820 --> 00:41:51,550
and other large events that
produce tremendous amounts

793
00:41:51,550 --> 00:41:54,260
of erosion in place, why are some

794
00:41:54,260 --> 00:41:57,230
of these things critically important?

795
00:41:57,230 --> 00:42:01,590
And so geographically, when
we think about our peoples,

796
00:42:01,590 --> 00:42:04,870
we also need to think about our history.

797
00:42:04,870 --> 00:42:06,990
And this is an example from Vermont

798
00:42:06,990 --> 00:42:11,440
where our topography,
our physical geography

799
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:16,440
is such that we have very,
very narrow value regions.

800
00:42:16,460 --> 00:42:18,920
And so, historically,
your rivers are running

801
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,150
along the the base of those valleys,

802
00:42:21,150 --> 00:42:24,690
but your roads are also
right next to the rivers,

803
00:42:24,690 --> 00:42:26,610
because there's no other place to put them

804
00:42:26,610 --> 00:42:28,540
if you think about it like that.

805
00:42:28,540 --> 00:42:30,780
And so from a historic perspective,

806
00:42:30,780 --> 00:42:32,900
historic and cultural perspective

807
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:37,750
in inland regions, especially
inland mountain regions,

808
00:42:37,750 --> 00:42:41,830
we have this dynamic where
and this actually occurred

809
00:42:41,830 --> 00:42:46,560
in Irene where the rivers and the roads

810
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:51,130
actually can create ice islands

811
00:42:51,130 --> 00:42:53,460
of where people were cut off or trapped

812
00:42:53,460 --> 00:42:56,760
when the erosion occurred

813
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:00,480
and cut off these regions across in here.

814
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,500
So this is the town of
Waterbury in Vermont

815
00:43:03,500 --> 00:43:06,090
where the Winooski River

816
00:43:06,090 --> 00:43:09,390
actually isolated the town of Waterbury

817
00:43:09,390 --> 00:43:11,630
during the Irene flooding.

818
00:43:12,540 --> 00:43:14,460
And so thinking about history,

819
00:43:14,460 --> 00:43:17,430
thinking about the ways
in which we can use this,

820
00:43:17,430 --> 00:43:20,700
this is a map that is a little
bit hard to read in here.

821
00:43:20,700 --> 00:43:23,330
It's a map that was created
by one of my colleagues

822
00:43:23,330 --> 00:43:27,030
at VTRans, Vermont
Agency of Transportation.

823
00:43:27,030 --> 00:43:30,590
And it superimposes all of the places

824
00:43:30,590 --> 00:43:33,800
where we had road damage in Irene,

825
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,870
those are the colors that you can see,

826
00:43:35,870 --> 00:43:40,870
with the places that had road
damage in 1927, the '27 flood.

827
00:43:40,910 --> 00:43:43,020
So let me blow this up
a little bit for you.

828
00:43:43,020 --> 00:43:45,610
And again, colored areas are Irene.

829
00:43:45,610 --> 00:43:50,320
And then the darker black
areas are during 1927.

830
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:53,750
And you'll notice that they
match, pretty much like this

831
00:43:53,750 --> 00:43:56,640
because again, here's the
history of the region.

832
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,200
So what this allows us to do

833
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:02,830
is maybe get a jump on where we need

834
00:44:02,830 --> 00:44:05,920
to take a look at which regions of states,

835
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,260
which regions of our topography,

836
00:44:08,260 --> 00:44:10,940
which populations might be affected

837
00:44:10,940 --> 00:44:15,440
because of that historical
piece that we see in here.

838
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,450
So to bring all of this together

839
00:44:18,450 --> 00:44:20,860
and to think about a changing climate,

840
00:44:20,860 --> 00:44:23,710
to think about what does
this mean for extreme events?

841
00:44:23,710 --> 00:44:26,060
What does this mean for
our natural hazards?

842
00:44:26,060 --> 00:44:29,120
There are a number of these dimensions

843
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:33,630
of the human environment, historical,

844
00:44:33,630 --> 00:44:36,900
socio and economic pieces
that need to go together

845
00:44:36,900 --> 00:44:38,740
for us to take a look at this.

846
00:44:38,740 --> 00:44:42,110
And as we think about,
and we think about trying

847
00:44:42,110 --> 00:44:45,440
to mitigate against changes

848
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:50,280
that are particularly
detrimental to all peoples,

849
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:52,770
how will we bring in the
geographies of vulnerability

850
00:44:52,770 --> 00:44:55,000
into the conversation?

851
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,180
So how are we getting information out,

852
00:44:58,180 --> 00:45:01,930
how are we making sure
that all of our populations

853
00:45:01,930 --> 00:45:05,520
are being well taken care of?

854
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:10,520
I think COVID has heightened
our awareness of vulnerability.

855
00:45:10,720 --> 00:45:15,700
And so if we think back to
last summer in particular

856
00:45:15,700 --> 00:45:18,450
when we had heat waves and we had

857
00:45:18,450 --> 00:45:21,040
the call to shelter in place,

858
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,880
how do you shelter in place
if you do not have a home?

859
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:25,560
And so the at start here,
we have vulnerability,

860
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,770
critically important for the weather,

861
00:45:27,770 --> 00:45:30,940
climate and climate change mitigation

862
00:45:30,940 --> 00:45:33,605
adaptation conversation.

863
00:45:33,605 --> 00:45:35,851
And as we're looking at this,
and we're looking at it,

864
00:45:35,851 --> 00:45:40,851
keeping in mind that all of
these changes and processes

865
00:45:41,190 --> 00:45:43,420
are occurring at different scales,

866
00:45:43,420 --> 00:45:45,840
from local scales, all
the way up to regional

867
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:49,730
and national scales and
the ways in which we need

868
00:45:49,730 --> 00:45:52,640
to take a broad scale systems approach

869
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,820
to making sure that we are
looking at all elements

870
00:45:55,820 --> 00:45:58,820
of either actual weather systems

871
00:45:58,820 --> 00:46:01,460
or climate changes in particular,

872
00:46:01,460 --> 00:46:05,160
in relation to the landscape,
in relation to our peoples,

873
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:08,520
in a way that allows us to bring together

874
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,090
all of the disciplines that
needs to be at the table

875
00:46:11,090 --> 00:46:13,320
for us to understand and advance

876
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:15,400
our knowledge and
appreciation of all of this.

877
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:18,790
And so it calls for a certain
amount of flexibility.

878
00:46:18,790 --> 00:46:21,750
It calls for a certain
amount of nimbleness

879
00:46:21,750 --> 00:46:24,190
in our response to an understanding

880
00:46:24,190 --> 00:46:28,910
of using all of these
various pieces of science

881
00:46:28,910 --> 00:46:31,390
in the service of society.

882
00:46:31,390 --> 00:46:35,180
So with that, I thank
you for your attention.

883
00:46:35,180 --> 00:46:39,310
I thank you for your invitation

884
00:46:39,310 --> 00:46:42,180
to be part of the Darwin Festival.

885
00:46:42,180 --> 00:46:44,770
And I would be happy to
entertain any questions

886
00:46:44,770 --> 00:46:47,280
that might have been put into the chat.

887
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:48,113
So thank you.

888
00:46:51,820 --> 00:46:55,120
- Thank you so much, Dr. Dupigny-Giroux.

889
00:46:56,310 --> 00:46:57,550
This is Nelson Scott Gale.

890
00:46:57,550 --> 00:47:00,280
I'm a member of the
Darwin Festival Committee

891
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,870
and I'll be helping moderate the questions

892
00:47:02,870 --> 00:47:06,950
along with Dr. Ryan Fisher.

893
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:12,860
I think I just put into
the chat for everybody

894
00:47:12,860 --> 00:47:16,810
the website for NCA4 just so that people

895
00:47:16,810 --> 00:47:18,830
could have it available.

896
00:47:18,830 --> 00:47:23,830
And our first question
in the 2016, 2020 image,

897
00:47:25,060 --> 00:47:26,880
the last one in your five-year average

898
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,390
of global temperature anomalies,

899
00:47:29,390 --> 00:47:31,550
is there an explanation
other than random variation

900
00:47:31,550 --> 00:47:34,390
for the blue spot in the
middle of the Atlantic ocean?

901
00:47:35,490 --> 00:47:38,730
- Okay, so there's certain parts

902
00:47:38,730 --> 00:47:41,460
of the ocean that tend to have cold pools.

903
00:47:42,310 --> 00:47:45,510
And that is one that we
have observed in the past.

904
00:47:45,510 --> 00:47:49,250
There was also one across
in the Pacific Ocean

905
00:47:49,250 --> 00:47:51,000
and part of it has to do with the dynamics

906
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,190
of flow in the ocean itself.

907
00:47:53,190 --> 00:47:55,680
And if we think about the way

908
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:59,340
in which your ocean currents flow,

909
00:47:59,340 --> 00:48:01,520
we've got the warm Gulf stream

910
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:06,520
that moves up the Eastern
seaboard across to parts of

911
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:09,160
just off the coast of Europe
and then back on down.

912
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:11,330
And so the cold pool that we're looking at

913
00:48:11,330 --> 00:48:14,660
was in between that Gulf stream,

914
00:48:14,660 --> 00:48:16,440
making its movements in there.

915
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:18,240
And so we've got that surface current.

916
00:48:18,240 --> 00:48:21,830
We also have overturning
of the ocean itself.

917
00:48:21,830 --> 00:48:23,290
So from a 3D perspective,

918
00:48:23,290 --> 00:48:25,690
we also have to factor that in there,

919
00:48:25,690 --> 00:48:27,570
but it's one of those persistent pieces

920
00:48:27,570 --> 00:48:30,010
that we've observed in the past.

921
00:48:30,010 --> 00:48:34,110
And it helps us to understand or to think

922
00:48:34,110 --> 00:48:36,600
that when we think about ocean currents,

923
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:38,370
when we think about ocean temperatures

924
00:48:38,370 --> 00:48:39,910
and sea surface temperatures,

925
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,610
that different parts of the ocean,

926
00:48:43,610 --> 00:48:45,130
whether we're talking
about the Arctic Ocean

927
00:48:45,130 --> 00:48:47,010
or the North Atlantic,
whether we're talking

928
00:48:47,010 --> 00:48:50,000
about the Antarctic
Ocean respond differently

929
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:54,300
because the overturning
conditions are different

930
00:48:54,300 --> 00:48:56,920
in different sectors of our water planet.

931
00:49:01,110 --> 00:49:03,860
- Dr. Dupigny-Giroux,
thanks for a very good talk.

932
00:49:03,860 --> 00:49:04,900
My name's Ryan Fisher.

933
00:49:04,900 --> 00:49:06,910
I'm also in the Darwin Festival Committee.

934
00:49:06,910 --> 00:49:10,260
I have another question
from our audience today.

935
00:49:10,260 --> 00:49:11,830
How do you think the Green New Deal

936
00:49:11,830 --> 00:49:13,700
would help climate change?

937
00:49:13,700 --> 00:49:15,470
Is it risk-based framing?

938
00:49:15,470 --> 00:49:18,140
What can we do on a day
to day basis to help?

939
00:49:20,550 --> 00:49:23,970
- Okay, so great question, great question.

940
00:49:23,970 --> 00:49:26,440
And I have not had a
chance to delve deeply

941
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:27,520
into the Green New Deal.

942
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:31,240
So I would not be able to
comment specifically on that.

943
00:49:31,240 --> 00:49:33,950
One of the things I can say

944
00:49:33,950 --> 00:49:37,200
is that the Northeast has been a leader

945
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:40,970
in terms of a lot of the strategies

946
00:49:40,970 --> 00:49:43,620
that are taking place across the board.

947
00:49:43,620 --> 00:49:46,690
I know there's a very active community

948
00:49:46,690 --> 00:49:49,740
in a lot of the towns
across Massachusetts,

949
00:49:49,740 --> 00:49:51,980
I think back to some of the presentations

950
00:49:51,980 --> 00:49:56,320
that we saw at the NCA4
conference back in November.

951
00:49:56,320 --> 00:50:01,320
And so I think as we wait
for the new administration

952
00:50:01,790 --> 00:50:06,320
to start creating and
implementing policies,

953
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:08,130
I think it's absolutely critical

954
00:50:08,130 --> 00:50:10,750
to continue doing a lot
of the really great work

955
00:50:10,750 --> 00:50:13,030
that is taking place at the local level

956
00:50:13,030 --> 00:50:14,720
so that when the time comes

957
00:50:14,720 --> 00:50:17,980
and we can do this merging
of local to federal,

958
00:50:17,980 --> 00:50:20,030
we will be in a good position to do that.

959
00:50:24,990 --> 00:50:29,990
- The next question was does
the stream flow increase

960
00:50:31,180 --> 00:50:36,060
affect sea level at all since
streams flow into the ocean?

961
00:50:38,130 --> 00:50:40,460
- So has the stream flow
increase affect sea level.

962
00:50:40,460 --> 00:50:44,780
So I think that that is,
that's an interesting question.

963
00:50:44,780 --> 00:50:48,700
So for most of the streams
across New England,

964
00:50:48,700 --> 00:50:52,530
they pretty much flow from the
North down towards the South.

965
00:50:52,530 --> 00:50:56,090
And at the same time, we're
looking at sea level rise

966
00:50:56,090 --> 00:51:01,090
along the Eastern seaboard,
which is coming up like this.

967
00:51:01,220 --> 00:51:05,110
And part of the challenge
is the Northeast shelf

968
00:51:05,110 --> 00:51:10,110
off the coast of our
region looks like this.

969
00:51:10,630 --> 00:51:13,480
And so part of that sea level rise

970
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:18,480
has to do with the shape of the coast.

971
00:51:18,970 --> 00:51:22,600
I think as that sea level rise occurs

972
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:24,470
and we're seeing that
it's taking place faster

973
00:51:24,470 --> 00:51:28,010
than it is, in say, like the
south east region in there,

974
00:51:28,010 --> 00:51:31,700
that water that's moving down into places

975
00:51:31,700 --> 00:51:34,840
like pitch and sound would be influencing

976
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:38,780
and helping to raise your sea level

977
00:51:38,780 --> 00:51:40,170
that it's already occurring

978
00:51:40,170 --> 00:51:41,660
along the Northeast shelf in there.

979
00:51:41,660 --> 00:51:42,730
And so I think that's part of the reason

980
00:51:42,730 --> 00:51:45,980
why we pay particular attention
to our coastal resources

981
00:51:45,980 --> 00:51:49,630
because we've got a
particularly fragile system

982
00:51:49,630 --> 00:51:51,940
that doesn't look like other places

983
00:51:51,940 --> 00:51:54,440
for the south of us or the Gulf of Mexico

984
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:56,730
or along Pacific Ocean.

985
00:51:59,890 --> 00:52:01,170
- Here's another question for you

986
00:52:01,170 --> 00:52:03,170
with an acronym that
I'm not familiar with.

987
00:52:03,170 --> 00:52:06,290
How realistic is RCP 8.5,

988
00:52:06,290 --> 00:52:09,650
given the recent decrease
in greenhouse gas emissions

989
00:52:09,650 --> 00:52:12,920
as well as planned future
investments in renewables?

990
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:14,980
- Okay, great question.

991
00:52:14,980 --> 00:52:16,530
And two ways of answering that,

992
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:19,980
when we think about
greenhouse gas emissions,

993
00:52:19,980 --> 00:52:24,350
we have to really parse out
which ones we're talking about.

994
00:52:24,350 --> 00:52:26,010
Are we doing methane?

995
00:52:26,010 --> 00:52:27,710
Are we talking about carbon dioxide?

996
00:52:27,710 --> 00:52:30,550
Are we doing something
like nitrogen dioxide,

997
00:52:30,550 --> 00:52:34,470
some of the decreases that
we saw in the last year or so

998
00:52:34,470 --> 00:52:36,790
were due to the COVID lockdown

999
00:52:36,790 --> 00:52:39,600
and nitrogen dioxide
decreasing as a result of that.

1000
00:52:40,700 --> 00:52:43,430
But nitrogen dioxide is a really
interesting greenhouse gas

1001
00:52:43,430 --> 00:52:45,620
because it actually
started to rebound as soon

1002
00:52:45,620 --> 00:52:47,990
as we came out to lockdown.

1003
00:52:47,990 --> 00:52:50,950
And so when we think about it,

1004
00:52:50,950 --> 00:52:54,050
we really have to factor
in the entire spectrum.

1005
00:52:55,911 --> 00:52:58,800
Methane, which you may remember

1006
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:01,810
has a greenhouse warming potential

1007
00:53:01,810 --> 00:53:03,790
of 20 times carbon dioxide,

1008
00:53:04,990 --> 00:53:06,320
sometimes it's a forgotten gas

1009
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:10,460
but it's a really critical gas
because when it gets released

1010
00:53:10,460 --> 00:53:14,920
from either permafrost
or from forest fires,

1011
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:17,140
we saw that big jump last year, again,

1012
00:53:17,140 --> 00:53:20,780
when we saw a lot of that
permafrost release taking place

1013
00:53:20,780 --> 00:53:23,100
in Siberia and other
parts of Northern Russia,

1014
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:29,421
making us aware again, we need
to pay attention to methane.

1015
00:53:29,421 --> 00:53:31,880
And then the last gas that
we're still learning about

1016
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:36,880
is HFCs, which are
hydrogenated fluorocarbons,

1017
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,890
which are gases that were just discovered

1018
00:53:40,890 --> 00:53:42,590
about three or four years ago.

1019
00:53:42,590 --> 00:53:46,160
And again, they have a very, very potent

1020
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:50,750
greenhouse gas potential in
terms of warming the atmosphere,

1021
00:53:50,750 --> 00:53:51,900
very long lived.

1022
00:53:51,900 --> 00:53:53,760
And because they're synthetic,

1023
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:55,610
we still need to learn a lot about them.

1024
00:53:55,610 --> 00:53:58,780
And so even while we make strides

1025
00:53:58,780 --> 00:54:01,810
in terms of the gases
that we know more about

1026
00:54:01,810 --> 00:54:04,990
like nitrous oxide, like carbon dioxide,

1027
00:54:04,990 --> 00:54:07,470
there's still some of these
others that are either new,

1028
00:54:07,470 --> 00:54:11,300
so the HFCs are new or
that are gonna be released

1029
00:54:11,300 --> 00:54:13,180
or are being released at rates

1030
00:54:13,180 --> 00:54:15,710
that we are still getting
our hands wrapped around,

1031
00:54:15,710 --> 00:54:17,160
which is things like methane.

1032
00:54:21,220 --> 00:54:24,270
- A somewhat related question is how much

1033
00:54:24,270 --> 00:54:26,590
of the ozone layer have
we depleted over time

1034
00:54:26,590 --> 00:54:28,480
with pollution and aerosols?

1035
00:54:29,957 --> 00:54:33,950
I think there's a relation
with those in the HFCs.

1036
00:54:37,330 --> 00:54:42,330
- So the ozone layer is
a talk in and of itself

1037
00:54:42,410 --> 00:54:45,420
but I'll try to do it in
like two minutes. (laughs)

1038
00:54:45,420 --> 00:54:50,070
All right, so if you
remember back to the slide

1039
00:54:50,070 --> 00:54:53,240
that I showed you with
the NASA visualization

1040
00:54:53,240 --> 00:54:56,793
and change from 1880 to 2000,

1041
00:54:56,793 --> 00:55:00,460
that massive amounts of red
across the Northern hemisphere

1042
00:55:00,460 --> 00:55:04,280
in last little bit, if
you remember the same time

1043
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:07,810
you saw slightly different
signal down in Antarctica.

1044
00:55:07,810 --> 00:55:12,810
And so the ozone hole is a depletion

1045
00:55:13,020 --> 00:55:18,020
in the amount of ozone at around 19 miles

1046
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:23,340
above the Earth's surface,
primarily over Antarctica.

1047
00:55:23,340 --> 00:55:24,950
So when we say the ozone hole,

1048
00:55:24,950 --> 00:55:26,740
we're not talking about an actual hole,

1049
00:55:26,740 --> 00:55:28,900
we're talking about a decrease

1050
00:55:28,900 --> 00:55:32,210
in amounts of ozone at
the upper level here.

1051
00:55:33,420 --> 00:55:36,923
So there's a 3D thing going on.

1052
00:55:36,923 --> 00:55:39,280
There's a decrease at this level.

1053
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:42,100
And what that means is that we get

1054
00:55:42,100 --> 00:55:46,400
more ultraviolet radiation
coming down to the earth surface.

1055
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:52,560
Ozone also occurs at this
level where we walk around

1056
00:55:52,670 --> 00:55:56,910
and at this level, ozone at
this level is a greenhouse gas.

1057
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:01,130
And so when we think about ozone

1058
00:56:01,130 --> 00:56:03,530
at the levels that we walk around,

1059
00:56:03,530 --> 00:56:05,740
that's the stuff that
gets produced from cars

1060
00:56:05,740 --> 00:56:10,210
or forest fires or cars, forest fires

1061
00:56:10,210 --> 00:56:11,410
or industrial processes.

1062
00:56:12,774 --> 00:56:15,200
And when we talk about it here,

1063
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:20,000
that's a greenhouse gas,
that's a human irritant.

1064
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:23,410
The ozone hole up in here in
the stratospheric regions,

1065
00:56:23,410 --> 00:56:26,040
19 miles where your jet aircraft fly,

1066
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:29,200
that is what protects us from skin cancer.

1067
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:30,980
So there's a subtle difference

1068
00:56:30,980 --> 00:56:33,560
between the height that it occurs.

1069
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:35,640
And it's important, both
critically important,

1070
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:37,140
but for two different reasons.

1071
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:42,050
- I'm conscious of the time, everyone.

1072
00:56:42,050 --> 00:56:44,560
We probably have two more questions.

1073
00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:48,260
For those in the audience, we
always get lots of questions

1074
00:56:48,260 --> 00:56:52,090
and we try to have as many of
them as we can be answered.

1075
00:56:52,090 --> 00:56:55,050
So the next question is has less travel

1076
00:56:55,050 --> 00:56:57,640
due to COVID mitigated climate change?

1077
00:57:00,970 --> 00:57:05,510
- So that goes back to
the previous comment

1078
00:57:05,510 --> 00:57:10,510
that I was talking about
with the gas in question.

1079
00:57:10,890 --> 00:57:13,990
So when we went into the lockdown,

1080
00:57:13,990 --> 00:57:16,710
there was a thinking that we would see,

1081
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,370
this is a real world
experiment and what turned out

1082
00:57:21,370 --> 00:57:25,720
was that the amount of
carbon dioxide emissions

1083
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:29,470
were not impacted as
much as we anticipated

1084
00:57:29,470 --> 00:57:30,550
that they were gonna be.

1085
00:57:30,550 --> 00:57:33,300
So that was one part of the answer.

1086
00:57:33,300 --> 00:57:34,900
But then what we learned was something

1087
00:57:34,900 --> 00:57:36,980
that was really, really unexpected

1088
00:57:36,980 --> 00:57:40,490
because we didn't know
about nitrogen dioxide

1089
00:57:40,490 --> 00:57:42,590
and how quickly it responds.

1090
00:57:42,590 --> 00:57:45,510
So it was responding on the
order of weeks and months.

1091
00:57:45,510 --> 00:57:47,710
We saw that dramatic drop.

1092
00:57:47,710 --> 00:57:50,250
But then as soon as the economies started,

1093
00:57:50,250 --> 00:57:52,190
we saw all of that rebounding.

1094
00:57:52,190 --> 00:57:53,860
So it came back to the levels

1095
00:57:53,860 --> 00:57:55,740
before they lockdown itself.

1096
00:57:55,740 --> 00:57:59,190
So the answer is we saw a short-term drop

1097
00:57:59,190 --> 00:58:03,510
in one of the gases,
but it didn't mitigate

1098
00:58:03,510 --> 00:58:07,080
against all of the greenhouse gases,

1099
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:10,340
in terms of making an
impact on climate change.

1100
00:58:15,580 --> 00:58:20,500
- Do you think that
encouraging people to move

1101
00:58:20,500 --> 00:58:24,340
to unpopulated areas that
have less disaster damage

1102
00:58:24,340 --> 00:58:27,020
would help save money in disaster damage?

1103
00:58:27,970 --> 00:58:32,340
- So that question is what
we call climate refugees.

1104
00:58:32,340 --> 00:58:37,340
And that is a huge, huge
topic, not just for discussion,

1105
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:44,210
not just for research,
because population movements

1106
00:58:44,210 --> 00:58:48,794
are a complicated and complex topic.

1107
00:58:48,794 --> 00:58:52,820
And it's not just a question of moving

1108
00:58:52,820 --> 00:58:54,100
from one place to the next.

1109
00:58:54,100 --> 00:58:57,370
You also need to look at
the receiving communities

1110
00:58:57,370 --> 00:59:00,570
and whether the capacity exists

1111
00:59:00,570 --> 00:59:03,370
from a socioeconomic perspective,

1112
00:59:03,370 --> 00:59:08,370
from a land-based perspective,
from a services perspective.

1113
00:59:08,510 --> 00:59:11,670
So it's not just a
question of let's relocate

1114
00:59:11,670 --> 00:59:13,120
from here to here.

1115
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:15,520
There's all of these
other geographic elements

1116
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:17,100
that I've talked about.

1117
00:59:17,100 --> 00:59:20,920
I know Dr. Hayes knows
about, in great detail,

1118
00:59:20,920 --> 00:59:25,690
that we need to really do
that human environment,

1119
00:59:25,690 --> 00:59:30,030
political, cultural, economic, physical,

1120
00:59:30,030 --> 00:59:31,530
all of those pieces have to go together

1121
00:59:31,530 --> 00:59:33,800
before you can understand this.

1122
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:35,930
So we've been seeing some of this.

1123
00:59:35,930 --> 00:59:38,070
And again, it's one of those
things where we can maybe try

1124
00:59:38,070 --> 00:59:41,400
and use this as an experiment,
but it's not a simple answer.

1125
00:59:45,110 --> 00:59:49,270
- Dr. Hayes, if you would
like to thank our guest,

1126
00:59:49,270 --> 00:59:51,900
and then we'll end the webinar.

1127
00:59:52,870 --> 00:59:55,390
- Yeah. Thank you, Ryan.

1128
00:59:55,390 --> 00:59:58,430
So Professor Dupigny-Giroux
and Lesley Ann,

1129
00:59:58,430 --> 01:00:00,940
my friend, thank you so much.

1130
01:00:00,940 --> 01:00:03,315
It was a stimulating presentation.

1131
01:00:03,315 --> 01:00:08,315
You showed that the
complexities of the problem

1132
01:00:08,810 --> 01:00:12,110
and human, society, climate, water.

1133
01:00:12,110 --> 01:00:13,800
So I really appreciate it.

1134
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:18,800
And your involvement and
lead author of the chapter,

1135
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:23,150
it's just so cool that,

1136
01:00:23,150 --> 01:00:24,710
that you're a geography professor

1137
01:00:24,710 --> 01:00:26,520
and played this important role

1138
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:28,980
in the Fourth National Climate Assessment.

1139
01:00:28,980 --> 01:00:31,940
And I don't know how you're
a state climatologist

1140
01:00:31,940 --> 01:00:34,960
and a professor too, but you're amazing.

1141
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:36,870
So thank you so much.

1142
01:00:36,870 --> 01:00:38,070
- Well, John, thank you.

1143
01:00:38,978 --> 01:00:41,601
(John laughs)

1144
01:00:41,601 --> 01:00:42,434
- Thank you very much, everyone.

1145
01:00:42,434 --> 01:00:44,490
That concludes our webinar and hopefully,

1146
01:00:44,490 --> 01:00:47,010
we'll see you at the next one at 2:00 PM.

1147
01:00:47,010 --> 01:00:49,200
Take care.
- Thanks everybody.